864
FXUS64 KLIX 061745
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A rather zonal/progressive upper level flow will continue through
the morning and into the afternoon hours across our region. With
low level moisture continuing to increase with a southerly return
flow, some low stratus/fog will be possible, especially across
southwest MS and the Florida parishes of Louisiana. This should
lift shortly after sunrise as stronger insolation takes place
allowing clouds to mix out effectively. Later today and into
tonight an H5 impulse begins to round the base of the larger scale
trough centered over the plains and Rockies. Overall, this
feature appears weak in nature, but could spark off an isolated
shower or storm or two. At this juncture, with much of the support
being to our northwest, only our northwestern tier will have the
better POPs...even then generally at or below 30 percent.

Overnight any rainfall that does develop will come to an end with
the loss of daytime heating as well as the upper level impulse
racing downstream. Tuesday, the region will transition to a more
active southwesterly flow with an impulse or two expected to move
northeast through the flow providing folks generally along and
north of the I10/12 corridor with nonzero POPs. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Going into the long range, not much change to the overall pattern
across our region early on. Heights will slightly increase with a
592dam ridge across the southern Gulf of Mexico with gradually
rising heights over our region. Our area will remain under the
active southwesterly flow, but any impulse appears very subtle at
this juncture with very little in terms of POP/QPF signal at least
through midweek. The broad scale trough across the northern
Plains through the Rockies will continue to amplify with time.
This will help a frontal boundary move a bit closer or into our
region Thursday and Friday. With at least some better upper
support late Thursday and into Friday, think that this will
likely be the best rain chances we have this week, at least in
terms of coverage and QPF.

Going into the upcoming weekend things get a bit interesting. A
bit of a cool down opposite the front is expected. The front
actually looks to move through the region and as far south as
South Florida (which is incredibly rare for this time of year).
The front is being driven by a Canadian upper trough that
amplifies over the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley late
this week and into the weekend. With a bit of a pattern change
back to dry WNW or zonal upper flow, the weekend should actually
be cooler and drier after reaching the lower and middle 90s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond this time the forecast becomes very
tricky. The GFS has another Canadian trough amplifying over the
plains and into the mid MS River Valley. At the same time, this
trough begins to phase with a pacific trough finally kicking east
from the Rockies. This would provide a source for a bit of an
active weather pattern later this weekend and into early next
including well below average temperatures for this time of year.
The ECM has a bit different look with a short wave ridge across
the MS River Valley on Monday. So needless to say overall
confidence beyond Saturday drops pretty quickly. In fact, there`s
roughly a 20 degree difference between the GFS and ECM in terms of
temps on day seven. For now, we will lean more toward climo,
which would favor more of an ECM solution, but not totally sold on
tossing the GFS solution out the window as of now, as the ECM
still shows the aforementioned Canadian trough...just avoids
phasing with the ongoing Pacific trough over the western tier.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Largely VFR conditions will be found at all of the terminals
through the evening hours. There may be an isolated shower that
develops near MCB this afternoon, but the risk to low to include
in the forecast. Tomorrow morning, generally between 08z and 14z,
some boundary layer decoupling will occur as temperatures cool and
winds decrease. Another round of IFR and MVFR stratus development
is expected with the most prevalent IFR conditions expected at
MCB where decoupling will be greatest. The remainder of the
terminals should see ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet in the early
morning hours. After 15z, increased thermal mixing of the boundary
layer will allow the stratus deck to begin breaking and lifting
into VFR range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Any CIG/VIS reduction this morning will likely give way to VFR
conditions through today and into this evening. There could be
another low stratus/patchy fog event overnight, especially the
south MS terminals. Otherwise light to moderate southerly winds
are expected with perhaps a couple of higher gusts during the
afternoon hours. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Moderate onshore flow will continue through mid to late week this
week. Winds across the MS Sound and the tidal lakes may enhance
some during the daytime. Used cautionary headlines respectively.
Otherwise, winds begin to increase later on this week with SCA
may be needed going into the late week and into te upcoming
weekend. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  87  69  90 /  20  20  20   0
BTR  73  90  73  93 /  10  10  10   0
ASD  71  89  72  91 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  75  89  75  90 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  73  86  73  86 /  10  10  10   0
PQL  71  87  71  88 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF