Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190135
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
935 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

The showers and storms are beginning to weaken this evening. Most of
the lightning has gone from the activity across the northern
Bluegrass region and the storms that moved in from TN have weakened
considerably as well. High resolution guidance shows this trend
continuing over the next few hours with precipitation becoming more
isolated.

Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain continue across the
region this evening. Where storms are moving repeatedly over one
area or stalling, we have seen some flooding of roads and small
streams tonight. The storms will continue over the next few hours
before tapering off as we head into the later overnight hours.
Another round of showers and storms will develop towards dawn and
increase in coverage through the morning hours.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...Localized Heavy Rainfall Possible Again This Evening...

The weakly defined warm front is now sitting across central KY and
will continue to slowly lift north as the driving upper disturbance
pivots into the Wabash River Valley. The warm front was essentially
caused by differential heating as substantial clearing has occurred
across southern and central portions of KY. As a result, 1000-1500
J/KG of CAPE have developed in a very moist airmass. Seeing a nice
upward trend in shower and storm coverage over the past hour or two
as a result of the increased instability and convergence along and
south of the boundary. This will all lift north toward the Ohio
River over the next few hours, with perhaps some more widespread
clustering of storms pushing NE into the Bluegrass region toward
sunset. Given a tall/skinny CAPE profile evident on soundings,
precipitable water values around 1.7 inches through the column, and
relatively slow storm movement heavy rainers are again a possibility
this afternoon and this evening. Don`t think we`ll see any
widespread problems, but isolated flood problems are possible where
training of thunderstorms occurs, and in spots that have seen more
rainfall in recent days. At this point, the best chances for the
heaviest rains this evening will be east of I-65 and along and north
of I-64. Coverage will be in the "numerous" range, but some spots
could see localized amounts higher than 1 to 2 inches, while other
spots stay mostly dry, much like we`ve seen over the past few days.

Shortly after sunset, will to watch another area of enhanced
coverage right along the western fringes of our CWA as another vort
lobe associated with the parent upper low swings into the area. The
same scenario will apply with this cluster, where locally heavy
rainfall may be possible.

Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period after Midnight should be
mostly dry with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

The closed upper low centered just to our NW on Saturday morning,
will then lift through the area as an open wave. This should spark
additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as it
does so. There is a chance that some of our SW counties could see
some clearing late in the day which could bring their highs to the
low 80s. Elsewhere, most everyone should stay in the upper 70s.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

A cold front will slide southeastward into the Ohio Valley over the
weekend and then lay out east-west and become a wavy quasi-
stationary front in the region through early next week. As this
front interacts with the warm, moist atmosphere behind Atlantic
ridging, scattered convection, primarily diurnal, will remain in the
forecast for the next several days. By Wednesday night through
Thursday night we`ll have slightly better chances of dry weather as
a small dome of Canadian high pressure drops southward out of the
Great Lakes.

Temperatures won`t change much from day to day in this stubborn
pattern, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

Thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue to affect LEX, HNB, and
BWG off and on through around 03Z. Thereafter, rain and storms will
become more isolated in nature through the remainder of the
nighttime hours. Guidance does show stratus building down overnight
after the precipitation ends. HNB looks to go down the lowest with
IFR or lower ceilings expected. SDF and BWG look to drop to fuel
alternate while LEX may stay just above that level.

Ceilings will slowly improve tomorrow morning. However, another
round of showers and storms is expected to develop by mid morning.
These showers and storms will move out from west to east during the
afternoon hours. Will carry VCTS at all sites for this activity.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term...BJS
Long Term...13
Aviation...EER



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