Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231613

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1213 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is in good shape as the upper low continues to spin over
the mid-Mississippi Valley. Streets of showers and storms are
expected to develop in afternoon instability east and north of the
low. Small hail and a cold air funnel or two won`t be entirely out
of the question in the stronger convection, especially west of I-65
and south of the Ohio River.

Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

A dry slot is working northward across southern KY at this time.
This has made for a break in the rain coverage, though a lower-
topped band of rain is rotating outward from the upper low now over
western TN...filling in parts of that gap. Have trended the rain
chances down some to account for this drying feature. Also tweaked
the rest of the grids toward current observations. This new forecast
calls for an additional 1-2 inches of rain falling a large chunk of
the forecast area by this evening...with the peak amounts along an
axis from Salem, IN to Louisville to Campbellsville in KY.


.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Mature storm system now centered near Memphis. Plenty of divergence
aloft east and northeast of this low is causing an expansive area of
light to moderate rains that will continue to overspread the rest of
central Kentucky and southern Indiana the rest of this morning. By
this afternoon, the low only will make it into western TN, but we
should see some pockets of dryness develop in the rain shield. These
places shouldn`t stay dry for long though, as it won`t take much
heating to generate additional showers. Cannot rule out some rumbles
of thunder over southern Kentucky with these pockets as well.

Tonight, the upper low will try and make it into southwest Kentucky,
but by daybreak Tuesday it likely will be right along the central
KY/TN border. We should expect continued good rain chances, though
with the best forcing farther east the amounts falling should drop
some. By Tuesday afternoon, the low should be just east of us, but
rain chances, and again some slight chances for thunder, will stay
up through the day along with cooler than normal temperatures.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The influence of the upper level low will be waning Tuesday night,
with just a few showers still possible across the area. However
another upper system will drop in from the Midwest Wednesday.
Moisture is not too abundant with this system, so rain chances will
be much lower than with today`s system. One more upper trough drops
in here Friday, with a cold front swinging through. This keeps up
rain chances for the work week...not to mention keeping temperatures
from spiking too warm on any one day.

Behind the Fri/Fri night system we may actually build in a few dry
days, with a warmup for the weekend.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Numerous showers continue to move north across central KY and
southern IN this morning, affecting all four TAF sites. But some
drier air has resulted in fairly large gaps on radar over central
and western KY. Meanwhile, all four TAF sites remain VFR. However,
lower ceilings were common in observations just off to the
southwest. MVFR ceilings should develop this morning as the better
low level moisture slowly advects northward. But some improvement is
also likely this afternoon. Winds will remain fairly breezy around
10-15 kts out of the east. More convective showers could develop
this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG, possibly resulting in a
rumble of thunder or perhaps some small hail.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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