Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 210817
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
417 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Skies were mostly clear this morning with a 5-8 mph northeast
breeze. This is resulting in 10-15 degree differences between most
areas and the cooler valleys/sheltered areas. In particular, KY
Mesonet sites in Meade, Harrison, and Madison counties have dipped
into the lower 30s. Elsewhere, temps were generally in the low to
mid 40s. Patchy frost will be a concern mainly for the cooler low-
lying areas through sunrise.

Today looks like a really nice day, with just a bit more cirrus
spilling over flattening upper ridging. Surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes will slowly slide SE. Afternoon highs
will likely reach the mid 60s to lower 70s.

A closed upper low moves across Kansas and Oklahoma tonight, and
we`ll see increasing mid and upper level clouds. Surface low
pressure is forecast to make it to Arkansas by 12z Sun. We`ll
maintain an easterly breeze overnight, with thicker cloud cover and
milder temps. Lows should end up in the mid 40s to around 50 for
most.

Low pressure system will rotate over the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday and try to push showers into central KY from the south. The
rain chances are mainly limited to areas south of a Tell City, IN to
Liberty, KY line, with higher PoPs further southwest. Highs will
range through the 60s.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Closed upper low pivots slowly northeastward over TN/KY Sunday night
through Monday night, which will result in a wetter period of
weather. Based on the orientation of the mid and upper level flow,
we may see healthy deformation rain bands pivot through the forecast
area Sunday night-Monday and then again Monday night-Tue morning.
Best chance for decent rainfall Tue morning would be east of I-65,
just before the system lifts out of the region. Based on the track
of this slow-moving system and persistence of a SE LLJ, highest QPF
is south of the Western Kentucky/Bluegrass Parkways. Total rainfall
through Tuesday could exceed 1 inch across southern KY, while
portions of southern Indiana may be lucky to see a quarter of an
inch. We`ll see smaller diurnal temp swings through this period,
with daytime highs in the 60s.

The mid to late week pattern will feature a relatively active
northwest flow pattern. A couple notable upper troughs dropping
southeast will result in decent chances for rain Wednesday afternoon-
Thursday and again Friday-Friday night. Overall, thunderstorm
chances still look pretty limited next week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High pressure to our northeast will keep a general east to northeast
breeze this period.  High clouds will continue streaming across the
region, but VFR conditions will dominate.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ043.

&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...RJS


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