Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 152340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
740 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the
region this afternoon.  Temperatures across the region ranged from
the upper 50s across southern Indiana and the northern Bluegrass
region to the mid-upper 60s across southern KY.  A few 70s were
reported out across far western KY.  Should see an hour or so of
more heating, so highs on the day may be a degree or so warmer than
current conditions.  For this evening, expect mostly clear skies to
continue with readings falling off into the lower 40s in the north
by late evening and into the upper 40s to the lower 50s across the

For tonight, quiet weather is expected with just a general increase
in cloud cover.  Overall models have continued to trend drier with
the overnight forecast, so we have removed PoPs all together with
this forecast cycle.  Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s in
the southeastern IN and into the Bluegrass region of central KY.
Lows will be a little warmer across the west/southwest where mid-
high level clouds will stream in late.  Lows there will bottom out
in the lower 40s.

For Friday/Friday night, frontal boundary to the south will stall
out and lift back northward as a warm front.  Rain chances will
increase during the afternoon hours as moisture works northward and
back into the region.  Much of the day looks to be dry, but
precipitation chances will ramp up into the evening hours as a mid-
level perturbation swings into the region resulting in more
widespread precipitation moving in from the west/southwest.  Highs
during the day will warm into the upper 40s across southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.  Down south, highs in the mid-upper 50s will
be seen in areas south of the Cumberland Parkway.   Lows Friday
night look to cool into the upper 30s in the north with mid-upper
40s across southern KY.

.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Saturday through Sunday Night...

On Saturday, surface warm front will move northward into the Ohio
Valley.  Main question is just how far north will the front surge.
Current thinking is that it will likely get as far north as the Ohio
River.  A surface low will translate eastward into the Ohio Valley
along the warm front.  This should bring another round of showers,
and possibly a few thunderstorms to the region.  Best chances of
thunderstorms on Saturday look to be along and south of the
Bluegrass Parkway.  Highs on Saturday look to top out in the upper
40s to the lower 50s across southern IN and far northern KY.  South
of the warm front, temperatures will likely warm well into the 60s,
with some 70s possible down along the KY/TN border region.
Precipitation looks to push out of the region by Saturday night with
some ridging building into the region for Sunday.  Lows Saturday
night will drop into the lower-mid 30s in the north with upper 30s
to the lower 40s in the south.  Highs Sunday look to warm into the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Lows Sunday night look to cool into the
upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Monday through Thursday...

The longer term period looks to remain quite active across the
eastern half of the US with several systems rolling through the
region.  First of these looks to arrive on Monday bringing another
round of showers and a few thunderstorms to the region.  This system
will roll eastward and possibly develop further into another east
coast storm.  Some colder air may wrap into the departing system by
Tuesday night yielding some rain and snow showers across the region.
Unsettled weather looks to continue into Wednesday and Thursday as a
stronger upper low dips into the area.  This will likely bring
another round of rain showers during the day on Wednesday possibly
ending as snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

As for temps, highs will be the warmest on Monday with readings in
the upper 50s to the lower 60s in the north, and in the mid-upper
60s down across the south.  Highs Tues-Thursday will likely range
from the 40/50s during the day with lower-mid 30s at night.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Still have some gusts in the 15-20 kt range, but those should
diminish over the next hour as the surface begins to cool. Winds
will remain southwesterly at BWG overnight, but a surface boundary
sagging south will veer winds northwesterly this evening and
northeasterly by daybreak at HNB/SDF/LEX. Winds will continue to
turn more easterly during the day on Friday.

As for ceilings, we`ll remain VFR at least through 00z Saturday.
Right now, we have a SCT 10 kft band of clouds developing over
central KY, slightly north of BWG, along with 30 kft cirrus
spreading in from the northwest. HNB/SDF/BWG will see a slow uptick
in mid-level cloud cover overnight through Friday morning, with
ceilings generally 10-15 kft. It will take longer into Friday to get
those ceilings into LEX. As low pressure moves east into Missouri
Friday evening, lower ceilings and rain are likely to spread into
the area. Showers along with MVFR ceilings are likely after 00z Sat.
And toward 06-12z Sat, HNB could see IFR ceilings develop.




Short Term...MJ
Long Term....MJ
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