Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
116 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Recent GOES-East visible satellite imagery shows stratus deck now
along an Owensboro to Elizabethtown to Danville line and points
south. Clear skies prevail to the north. With light northeast flow,
drier air working in will help push the stratus southwestward
through the day, but will hang on across portions of south-central
Kentucky. Overall, the going forecast reflects this pretty well with
just minor adjustments made to the hourly temperature and sky grids.


.Short Term...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Satellite imagery early this morning shows the band of low clouds
stretching across the region. The northern edge of this band is
slowly sinking southward and is almost to the northern border of the
forecast area. Clouds will slowly clear out across southern IN and
north central KY this morning as surface high pressure builds in
from the north. South central KY will see clouds for longer and
portions of the area may not break out of the clouds at all today.
Temperatures today will be near normal for this time of year today,
topping out in the mid 50s to around 60.

For tonight into Monday, the upper level ridging will be displaced
by a shortwave ejecting out of the Plains into the Tennessee and
lower Ohio Valleys. The surface low associated with this wave will
track across TN into central or eastern KY. As it does a warm front
will lift into a portion of southern KY. There is still some
disagreement in the models with regards to the track of this feature
and this will have an impact on the potential for severe weather on
Monday across south central KY. For now it still looks like the best
chance for severe weather will be south of the KY/TN border, though
isolated severe storms will be possible in south central KY. The
trends in the models will need to continue to be monitored for the
potential for some stronger severe storms on Monday afternoon.
Further to the north, most of the region should see some rain on
Monday. Highs will top out near normal again.

.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period. The
low pressure system will be moving out on Monday night with rain
ending for a short period. However, the next shortwave will approach
on Tuesday with a deeper trough developing Tuesday night. The models
have come in with more precipitation on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across portions of southern IN and east central KY. They
have come in colder as well. This could result in some accumulating
snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, particularly in the
Bluegrass region of KY. If any accumulations do occur, they would be
short lived as temps on Wednesday will warm into the 40s.

High pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday
bringing a brief dry spell. With this will come the coldest temps of
the next week with lows dropping down into the mid to upper 20s.

Precipitation chances will return for the end of the week, though
models are in a bit of disagreement at this time as to when this
precipitation will move in. The GFS has the fastest solution
bringing in precip Thursday evening while the ECMWF holds it off
until Friday evening. Will continue with a blended approach for now.
Temperatures will be warming back towards normal as we head towards
next weekend.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon at KHNB/KSDF/KLEX.
KBWG looks to remain in the low stratus through much of the
afternoon with ceilings remaining MVFR.  Winds will be light out of
the east to east-northeast.  Ceilings may lift a little at KBWG by
late afternoon, however higher clouds will start to stream in after
that.  A weather system will approach the region from the southwest
late tonight.  KBWG has the best chance to see showers after 18/09Z
with KHNB/KSDF/KLEX not seeing shower activity until 18/18Z.




Short Term...EER
Long Term....EER
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