942
FXUS66 KLOX 271530
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
830 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...27/223 AM.

Fair skies and a warming trend will start today and continue into
early next week. By mid week the low clouds will begin to reform
and temperatures will cool.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...27/829 AM.

***UPDATE***

There were some low clouds this morning mainly over interior SLO
County and the N mtn slopes of VTU County and NW L.A. County, and
these are expected to gradually dissipate thru midday. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies covered the area this morning which will
continue thru the afternoon.

Gusty NW to N winds continued this morning over the I-5 Corridor
into the western Antelope Vly foothills, as well as over the SW
SBA County coast and western Santa Ynez Mtns. Wind Advisories are
in effect for these areas today, altho will expire this afternoon
for the I-5 Corridor and western Antelope Vly foothills as winds
diminish. For the coast and vlys, breezy to gusty W to NW winds
can be expected this afternoon as onshore pressure gradients
increase.

With a departing upper level trof and increasing H5 heights
today, temps will be a little warmer than yesterday but still
remain a few degrees below normal. Highs for much of the inland
coast and vlys should reach the upper 60s to mid 70s.

***From Previous Discussion***

Sunday and Monday look like very nice days as weak ridging will
move over the area. Hgts will rise to 576 dam on Sun and remain
there on Mon. Gradients will be only weakly onshore to east and
offshore from the north. There will be some northerly canyon winds
each morning but under advisory levels. Skies will be mostly
clear and max temps will rise 3 to 5 degrees on Sunday and another
1 to 2 degrees on Monday. Max temps will approach and even
locally exceed normals each afternoon.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...27/316 AM.

Broad scale pos tilt troffing moves into the state from the east
on Tuesday and remains in place through Friday when the troffing
becomes a little sharper. The onshore flow to the east increases
and the offshore flow from the north decreases. The night through
morning low coastal low clouds will increase in coverage (as
suiting for May Grey). Oddly the algorithmically adjusted blended
ensemble Max Temp forecast shows a little warming each day which
seems off kilter from what one would expect temps to do so the
current forecast may be a little on the warm side.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1319Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Skies were mostly cloudy in the mtns from northwestern L.A. County
northward, across interior portions of SLO and SBA County. There
were areas of low clouds in southern portions of the Central
Coast and the Santa Ynez Valley, with patchy low clouds in
southern and eastern L.A. County.Conds were mostly IFR to VLIFR,
except MVFR in southern coastal L.A. County. Skies should clear by
mid morning, except cigs may linger in the mtns thru early
afternoon. It will be breezy today, but not as windy as on Fri.
Still, there may be local LLWS and turbulence, especially thru
this afternoon.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF with VFR conds expected thru the pd.
There is a 20% chance of MVFR cigs from 09Z-16Z Sun. There is a
20% chance of a 7-8 kt east wind component thru 18Z today, and
again from 08Z-15Z Sun.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF with VFR conds expected thru the pd.
There is a 20% chance of MVFR cigs after 09Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...27/609 AM.

In the northern outer waters zone, (PZZ670), Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels winds/seas were occurring, and will likely continue
thru Wed. There is a 20% chance of gales this afternoon/eve, and
a good chance (50-60%) that winds will reach gale force again Sun
afternoon into Sun night. Therefore, a Gale Watch is in effect
then. There is a 30% chance that gales will persist into Mon eve.

In the southern zones (PZZ673/676), decent confidence that gales
will continue thru late tonight, then conds will likely drop to
SCA levels late tonight/Sun morning. There is a 70% chance of gales
again Sun afternoon thru Mon night. SCA conds expected Tue thru Wed.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely during
the afternoon/eve hours thru Tue, with seas remaining near SCA
levels during the periods of weaker winds. There is a 25% chance
of gale force winds during the afternoon/eve hours Sun ans Mon.

In the inner waters S Pt.Conception, winds and seas will likely be
at or above SCA levels thru late tonight. There is a 25% chance of
gale force winds in western portions of the SBA Channel this
afternoon/eve. SCA level winds/seas will likely develop Sun
afternoon in the SBA Channel and western portions of the southern
inner waters, and continue for much of the time thru Mon night,
with wind lulls during the morning hours. There is actually a
decent chance of gales in the western SBA Channel Sun afternoon
into Sun night, so a Gale Watch is in effect there.

Widespread strong to gale force winds will keep dangerous sea
conditions across the coastal waters thru the weekend, with short-
period, steep, and choppy waves. There may be dangerous breaking
waves near west-facing harbors. Mariners should remain in safe
harbor until conditions improve.

&&

.BEACHES...27/622 AM.

Low level high surf is expected on west-facing beaches of L.A./VTU
Counties and Catalina Island (4-7 ft with local sets to 8 ft),
and on NW to W facing beaches on the Central Coast (7-10 ft). Surf
should drop below High Surf criteria by late morning. There is a
high risk of rip currents thru Sun.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
      zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
      Sunday night for zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
      Monday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Sirard
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox