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000
FXUS64 KLUB 131107
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today will be very similar to yesterday. Upper ridging will dominate
today, though the ridge will be current overhead ridge will be
flattened temporarily by a weak shortwave that will push east of the
region by the late afternoon. A surface trough, stretching from the
Northern Plains into the South Plains ahead of the upper shortwave,
will allow for another breezy afternoon. Surface winds will veer to
the southwest as the axis of the surface trough pushes eastward from
central New Mexico to the western South Plains/Texas Panhandle. This
will help afternoon highs warm into the low 80s to near 90 across
the FA and will also help lower afternoon RH. Overnight lows will
also be warmer, mid 40s across our northwest zones to around 60s
across our southeast zones, as winds remain out of the southwest
around 5-10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The focus for the long term portion of the forecast remains on
Monday with the eastward movement of a dryline that could result in
severe thunderstorms to its east and/or strong winds to its west.
00Z model suite has trended toward a more closed and slower
progression of the mid/upper level trough progged to move across the
intermountain west on Monday with the low expected to be over
western Colorado state line at 00Z Tuesday. This would favor keeping
the dryline push a bit to the west, likely staying west of the
escarpment at late afternoon which in turn would continue to favor
chance PoPs for convective initiation in the moist sector, assuming
convective inhibition is not too great. Back in the dry this pattern
would keep the strongest winds back over southeastern New Mexico.
Will not get hung up on details this morning given expectation of
more guidance changes in the next 48 hours. However, these trends
were noted in the 00Z NBM initialization with little change needed
at this time.

Moving past Monday, the slower and more closed nature of the low
would potentially bring wind speeds a little higher than previously
expected at least into early Tuesday afternoon before weakening
pressure/height gradients at that time. Finally, significant changes
in the model evolution of the pattern over North America are noted
relative to 24 hours ago with the broad trough over southern Canada
and the northern tier of the CONUS now favoring a deep low over
Ontario with much less energy in the western part of the trough over
the northern Rockies while favoring zonal flow or short wave ridging
over the southern High Plains. NBM is hanging onto a slight chance
mention for PoPs Friday across the east, a scenario that is looking
unlikely at this time given the current models, but with the
possibility of further changes will keep that going in the forecast
for the sake of continuity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...51