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000
FXUS64 KLZK 212340
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Latest observations from surface and satellite indicate generally
clear conditions across the forecast area. Temperatures were
running about 8-12 degrees below normal.

Radiational cooling will be maximized overnight, given forecast
condtions of a clear sky and light surface flow.  Areas of frost are
expected across northern and portions of central Arkansas.
Appropriate headlines remain in effect.

An upper trough in a developing northwest flow will approach the mid
south on Tuesday.  This feature, along with an associated cold
front, will work on limited overall moisture to support widely
scattered showers on Tuesday, mainly across northern sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Broad, but low-amplitude H500 ridging wl be in place acrs the Wrn
half of the US on Wed, w/ ascd strong sfc high pressure positioned
over the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest vcty. A leading cdfrnt on the
periphery of this sfc high pressure is progged to stall acrs Nrn AR
Wed mrng, and wl lkly be the focus for higher chc PoPs Wed night
thru Thurs evng.

Nrly sfc flow invof the cdfrnt wl quickly return to Srly flow Thurs
and Fri, as cyclonic sfc flow develops over the Cntrl Great Plains,
under an approaching compact shortwave trof. Fri, the shortwave trof
wl maneuver acrs the Cntrl Plains and Ozark Plateau, taking on a
highly positive tilt. Vertical shear and buoyancy overlap does not
look to prominent acrs the FA on Fri, however a limited corridor of
favorable organized convection may manifest acrs the N/Wrn and Wrn
portion of the state. Uncertainties remain attm pertaining to severe
wx potential, but scattered thunderstorms appear possible on Fri w/
the current fcst pattern.

Sat and Sun, the initial shortwave trof wl quickly depart Nwrd, w/
the attendant sfc low following along, and another H500 longwave
trof looks to envelop the Cont Divide thru the weekend. Mean S/wrly
flow aloft wl keep a moist airmass in place, w/ low-lvl Srly flow
keeping temps elevated to above-normal values around the region. Chc
PoPs wl remain in the fcst thru the weekend w/ daily chances for
rain and thunderstorms.

Temps thru the PD wl start around near-normal readings, w/ daily
highs in the low to mid 70s, and wl moderate upwards to above-normal
readings by late this week and into the weekend, w/ temps climbing
to the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conds will prevail through the entire TAF period. Mid clouds
will dissipate after sunset this evening with SKC returning
tonight into Mon. Srly winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected on
Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     37  68  48  76 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         38  69  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       35  68  48  76 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    39  68  46  76 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  42  70  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     41  69  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      37  69  46  76 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  34  69  46  77 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        38  67  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     40  68  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   37  70  46  77 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         37  68  44  76 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      40  67  47  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Monday for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-103-112-113-123-203-212-213-223-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...70