Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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250 FXUS64 KMAF 120515 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1215 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak disturbance continue to move east across portions of the Permian Basin. A few locations saw brief heavy rain and some small hail. Unfortunately, forecast models are really struggling today, especially the CAMs. This gives us low confidence heading into this afternoon and evening regarding more storm chances. Clouds are beginning to clear along and west of the Pecos River which will lead to destabilization ahead of another shortwave expected to arrive over the next few hours. If we see enough heating an additional round of storms will develop mainly west of the Pecos River and move east. Most storms will remain elevated with large hail being the main threat. Further south near the Davis Mountains east onto the Stockton Plateau storms could become more surface based. This would allow for more of a damaging wind threat in addition to large hail. Winds veer to the west and southwest Sunday with the passage of an upper trough to our north. Drier, downsloping surface flow will help warm temperatures significantly with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Warm and dry days return for Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge passes overhead. Meanwhile, persistent south-southeasterly flow across the Permian Basin helps to sharpen a dryline backed up against the higher terrain by Wednesday morning. This dryline is sharpened in time for the next upper trough to approach from the west. Good moisture and steep lapse rates should lead to a fair amount of instability east of the dryline with the NBM and clusters still in agreement of seeing 1500+ J/kg in the warm sector. This paired with 30-40kts of shear could suggest that Wednesday may shape up to be our next day of severe weather...we`ll keep an eye on this as we get a bit closer. A cold front is ushered into the region on the heels of the aforementioned trough, brining northerly winds and cooler temperatures in briefly for Thursday before temperatures quickly rebound for the tail-end of the week. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 IFR/MVFR CIGs have redeveloped across the terminals. Current conditions are likely to be the worst of the TAF period before improving near and just after 12Z when westerly winds push moisture west and VFR remains through the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty westerly winds will create light low level turbulence for GA aircraft. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 56 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 86 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 64 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 60 88 61 94 / 0 0 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 56 80 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 53 84 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 48 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 57 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 59 87 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 59 90 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10