Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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271 FXUS64 KMEG 040225 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 925 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Main concern overnight is fog development. Clouds are moving off to the NE and some clearing has already occurred across western sections of the Mid-South. Most of the area has seen at least some rain during the last 24 hours and little if any drying occurred today. Dewpoint depressions have already fallen to 1 degree or less over much of the Mid-South. Low temps will crash through the crossover temp as well. The latest HRRR model runs have been indicating at least areas of dense fog as well. Given all this evidence have decided to go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire Mid-South from 1 am to 9 am Saturday. Also, cut pops for the remainder of the night. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Active weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next 7 days or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day as upper level disturbances move through. There is the potential for organized weather towards the middle of next week as a low pressure system moves into the region. Temperatures will likely remain near normal due to clouds and storms each day. Expect highs around in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mostly dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. Two decaying MCSs moved into the area this afternoon, but didn`t produce much convective activity as previous model guidance suggested. The most active weather is currently near the Alabama and Mississippi stateline, where a cluster of slow-moving strong storms have congealed. Hi-res models continue to struggle with shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region. The latest thinking is that this activity will continue to slowly lift northeast through sundown and taper off after sundown with the loss of daytime heating. Weak southwest flow aloft will persist through early next week. This will allow several weak perturbations to translate through the region. This weather pattern will continue to pose a challenge for nearly all model guidance, as steering flow will be weak and not well resolved. Using a more probabilistic approach is likely the best scenario here, however the 12Z HREF is not showing much in the way of precipitation for Saturday. Nonetheless, went with the NBM, which keeps 40 to 60 PoPs over the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon. Convective coverage looks a bit better on Sunday as a weak cold front and shortwave move into the region. Organized weather appears more likely by the middle of next week, as a large upper low ejects through the Central Plains. Subtle height falls will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a Day 5 Slight Risk has been introduced north of I-40. A better chance of strong to severe storms appears to be next Wednesday into Thursday, where a surface low will track to our northwest. Still a bit early to sort out specific details, as synoptic model guidance still has timing and feature differences. A cold front looks to move through by late week and bring cooler and drier air to the region for next weekend. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Occasional MVFR CIGS will linger across the airspace this evening. Later tonight, CIGS will eventually lower to IFR with the potential for reduced VIS to MVFR to IFR at various terminals. There is some potential that VIS will lower to LIFR conditions per latest guidance, but confidence in this scenario is low for now. Eventual improvement to VFR is expected across the airspace by late tomorrow morning or afternoon. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018- 026>028-035-036-048-049-058. MO...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017- 020>024. TN...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...JPR