636
FXUS62 KMFL 011725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

We will continue to see a teaser of the upcoming wet season in the
short term period, with showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms
possible each day. Thursday will generally be less active, as
drier air starts to filter in with a mid-level ridge building over
the area in the wake of a trough passing through today. Convective
activity will generally initiate along East Coast sea breeze
boundaries before moving inland and over the Gulf Coast areas
later in the day. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm would
be heavy downpours and gusty winds. Other than the convective
activity, conditions will be pleasant with an easterly breeze and
mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s over the East
Coast metro areas to the upper 80s and near 90 over the interior
sections today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, the trough will
make its exit eastward into the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge
gradually moves into the Southeast. Through the majority of the
long term, a weak body of surface high pressure will have the main
influence on the conditions over the Peninsula, thus keeping it
drier and warm. The high will be situated over the western
Atlantic which will lead to consistent easterly flow near the
surface. With the E/SE flow, there will be a chance (15-30%) for
isolated to scattered showers daily due to modest moisture
advection and pooling. Showers and isolated storms could be
enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes. However, in the
current ensemble outlook, widespread heavy rainfall, or
significant instability, does not appear to be a threat for the
long term. Caution will need to be taken with any slow-moving rain
showers due to sensitivity to flash flooding, especially when the
grounds are saturated.

Temperatures will be near to just above-normal through the
extended period. The highs will be rise into the upper 80s to low
90s across the SW and interior, while remaining in the low to mid
80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the
60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible near the east coast terminals early this afternoon,
before shifting towards the interior later in the afternoon.
TEMPOs may be needed for brief periods of MFVR or IFR conditions
at impacted terminals. Winds around 10 knots out of the SE to E,
weakening this evening and overnight. At KAPF, winds increase
later this afternoon out of the SW as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the
week. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
each day, which could create locally hazardous conditions. Other
than the convective threat, there is not expected to be concerns
for marine conditions. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet
in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.
Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

A high risk of rip currents will be present for the Palm beaches
today with a lingering swell and onshore flow. The rest of the
coast will see a moderate risk and it is likely that at least an
elevated risk continues for all beaches along the Atlantic coast
through the end of the week as breezy onshore flow continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  84  73  86 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     70  86  70  86 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        72  86  72  86 /  20  20  10  10
Homestead        72  85  72  84 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  73  83 /  20  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  73  84  73  83 /  20  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   72  87  72  86 /  20  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  70  84  71  83 /  20  20  10  10
Boca Raton       72  85  72  83 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           71  89  70  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver