023
FXUS66 KMFR 061552
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
852 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for today. A warm front
will bring unimpactful precipitation across northern California
and southern Oregon today. Coastal areas will get between 0.25 and
0.5 inches of rain and higher elevations of the Cascades will get
another 2 to 6 inches of snow. Other areas will get wet sidewalks,
at worst. Stable weather will follow the front, with temperatures
near 90 degrees forecast for this weekend. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs...MVFR ceilings are affecting the coastal
terminals early this morning and these conditions will remain likely
(70%) through at least mid-late morning as a front moves onshore.
This front will cause showers over inland areas eastward to the
Cascades through late this afternoon/early this evening. Many higher
terrain areas will be obscured. There may also be scattered showers
over the East Side and in NorCal, though showers in those areas will
be more hit or miss. VFR will prevail, though may briefly lower to
MVFR in showers. Gusty WSW winds are expected east of the Cascades,
including at Klamath Falls this afternoon, where peak gusts of
around 30 kt are expected. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Monday, May 6, 2024...After the
passage of a cold front  this morning, winds have shifted to the
west and lowered, but steep seas keep conditions hazardous to small
craft through late this morning. Seas will transition to moderate
west swell this afternoon through midday Tuesday. A thermal trough
will strengthen Tuesday afternoon with gusty north winds and steep
wind-driven seas developing, highest south of Cape Blanco. Wind
speeds will peak during Wednesday afternoon/evening, but gusty
northerly winds will persist into Thursday night. During this
stretch (Wed pm-Thu), we could see gale force winds come to
fruition, especially across the southern waters. As such, we have
issued a gale watch for areas from roughly Port Orford southward.
Conditions hazardous to small craft will expand north of Cape Blanco
again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The thermal trough will
weaken Friday into next weekend resulting in weaker north winds and
lower seas. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 444 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery is showing some rather extensive
cloud cover across southern Oregon and northern California this
morning. Meanwhile, radar is indicating some returns in Siskiyou
County as well as a few light showers starting to make their way
inland as another front approaches the area. This front will allow
showers to continue today with a few thunderstorms possible,
largely north of the Oregon/California border. These storms are
expected to be rather run of the mill, but could produce some
breezy winds to 30 mph. In addition, this front will also cause
breezy winds for the Winter Rim area in Lake County, including
Highways 31 and US Highway 395 near Alkali Lake. Am continuing the
Wind Advisory for those areas.

Otherwise, temperatures will start of relatively chilly this
morning. With cloud cover, expect temperatures to not reach
freezing for most of the area, but the Shasta and the Scott
Valleys in Siskiyou County still are showing a high chance (80%)
of reaching freezing. A freeze warning remains in effect for those
locations.

After today, the front will leave the area and showers will
decrease in coverage. Temperatures are expected to warm up as
well. Then, beginning Wednesday into the weekend, a ridge of high
pressure will return to the Pacific northwest. This ridge is
expected to remain in place through next week. This will see a
sense of early summer as temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees above
normal this time of year. And while it is not in the forecast,
Friday and Saturday could approach 90 degrees for West Side
Valleys. -Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ356-376.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$