118
FXUS62 KMHX 281054
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
654 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front may then impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

A zone of WAA over the Mid-Atlantic Coast/Chesapeake Bay area
has lead to a transient area of low clouds and patchy fog along
the Northern Outer Banks early this morning. Based on satellite
and local webcams, the fog is already clearing out, and I don`t
expect any significant, or long-lasting, fog impacts. Elsewhere,
patchy shallow, radiation fog has been noted, but also is not
expected to cause significant impacts.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Mid/upper level ridging will be anchored
over the Carolinas today, while at the surface, high pressure
will be anchored offshore. Despite the development of the
afternoon seabreeze, showers are not expected today thanks to
large scale subsidence beneath the ridge. With warming
thicknesses, and less cloudcover than yesterday, highs today are
expected to top out a good 5-10 degrees higher, especially away
from the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A light south to southwest flow plus warming thicknesses will
support milder temperatures tonight, with lows around 60 degrees
areawide. This is about 5 degrees, or so, warmer than normal
for late April. Like this morning, there could be some patchy,
shallow fog around, but widespread, impactful fog is not
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday and then Saturday
  into Sunday next weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS

Monday...High pressure will be in control on Monday and weather
will be quiet. No precipitation is expected. High temperatures
will be in the low to mid 80s with mid to upper 70s along the
immediate coast.

Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs
reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along
the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on
Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to
approach from the west with rain chances holding off until
overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances have been
trending downward with this system so QPF will be fairly
minimal.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on
Tuesday night or Wednesday and with it a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This does not look like a severe threat at this
point. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another
slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly in the western counties. Despite this moving
through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time
topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along
the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Low
chances (25- 30 %) for showers and thunderstorms with a
prefrontal trough on Saturday followed by slightly higher
chances (30-35%) with the main front on Sunday. Temperatures
slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Sunday/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hrs (60-80% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

Area webcams, surface observations, and satellite imagery have
shown some low CIGs and shallow fog (MIFG) over the past few
hours. However, nothing significant or long-lasting is expected
this morning. Low-mid level clouds will hang around for several
more hours along the Outer Banks, but CIGs are expected to be
VFR. Later today, a brief uptick in the wind, as well as a SCT
layer of cumulus clouds, is expected along the inland-advancing
seabreeze. However, the chance of SHRA is very LOW (<10%
chance). Skies are expected to clear out tonight, possibly with
another round of MIFG.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...The expected synoptic weather pattern
carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week,
with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance
will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

A transient area of low clouds and reduced visibility (2-3
miles) has been noted recently across the waters north of Cape
Hatteras. Based on satellite and local webcams, conditions are
quickly improving from north to south, and the impact to
mariners is expected to be minimal.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The background northeasterly swell will
continue through tonight, with a developing southwesterly wind
swell late this afternoon into this evening. This will continue
to support seas of 3-5 ft through tonight. Light south winds of
5-10kt this morning will increase to 10-20kt this afternoon, and
become southwesterly. Modest southwesterly winds then continue
into tonight. There may be just enough of a gradient to support
a few gusts of 20-25kt, but the risk appears too low to warrant
any marine headlines.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early next week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...RTE/RM
MARINE...RTE/RM