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000
FXUS63 KMKX 090853
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Runoff from recent precipitation continues to result in
  elevated river levels, with river flooding on portions of the
  Lower Fox and Rock Rivers through at least mid week.

- A low pressure system may bring widespread rainfall for
  Thursday and Thursday night, which may contribute to elevated
  river levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Today through Wednesday:

A few areas of broken high level cloud cover will give way to a
scattered cumulus deck by this afternoon, while calm winds
early this morning shift to become westerly and gust up to 20
mph from mid-morning into late afternoon. Due to offshore
blowing winds, not anticipating a lake breeze component this
afternoon. That being said, a slightly cooler airmass will work
its way into the area today, leading to high temperatures in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will diminish quickly
into the evening hours, with diurnal cumulus also dissipating.

Light winds and clear skies are expected to allow temperatures
to dip down to near 40 degrees and perhaps the upper 30s
tonight. Light winds and clear skies continue into Wednesday
morning, allowing temperatures to quickly climb into the 60s.
Diurnal cumulus look likely once again on Wednesday afternoon as
an adiabatic boundary layer becomes established. Expect high
temperatures in the upper 60s. High clouds begin moving in
across the area Wednesday evening ahead of a low pressure
system.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

Low pressure approaches southern Wisconsin from the Lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, while a shortwave
approaches from the northern Great Plains. Increasing
precipitation chances are expected throughout Wednesday night.
Phasing between the aforementioned systems is expected to
result in increased cyclogenesis, with precipitation likely (60
to 90 percent chance) across southern Wisconsin Thursday into
Thursday night. In addition, cyclogenesis will favor northerly
to northwesterly gusty winds. As the low slowly pivots eastward
out of the area, wrap around precipitation may linger through
Friday (15 to 30 percent chance). Continued uncertainty with
precipitation amounts, with ECMWF ensembles indicating more
confidence with earlier phasing and higher accumulations, while
GFS ensembles indicate a later timing for the phasing and
associated lower accumulations. Regardless of model of choice,
southeastern Wisconsin looks to see the most rainfall.

A few additional shortwaves are possible across southern
Wisconsin through the weekend into early next week, but exact
trajectory is dependent on recovery of southeastern U.S. high
pressure and associated upper level ridging. Stronger ridging
would lead to generally less precipitation across the region and
would lead to higher temperatures, while a weaker ridge would
result in cooler temperatures and more potential for shortwaves
to produce precipitation. Stronger cyclogenesis in the central
Plains looks to develop early next week.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A few areas of lingering high clouds will exit into this
morning, transitioning to VFR scattered cumulus into the late
morning to afternoon hours. Skies are expected to clear this
evening into tonight, remaining clear into Wednesday morning.

Light and variable to calm winds will shift to westerly this
morning as a weak cold front progresses eastward across southern
Wisconsin. Winds will become gusty with gusts up to 20 kt late
this morning, continuing into mid afternoon before diminishing
quickly this evening. Light southwesterly winds are then
expected overnight.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

An area of low pressure over southwestern Ontario continues to
weaken as weak high pressure in the central Great Plains noses
into the area, leading to light winds tonight. Winds shift
southwesterly today as a weak cold front lifts across the lake.
Weak high pressure will then pass to the south and east of Lake
Michigan for Wednesday, supporting a continuation of light
southerly winds. Strengthening low pressure is then expected to
track from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Lower Great
Lakes from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected to develop Thursday and
continue throughout Friday, while the potential continues to
increase for northerly gales over Lake Michigan late Thursday
into Friday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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