430
FXUS64 KMOB 200452
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of
some localized patchy overnight fog. Calm or light and variable
winds overnight become easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on
Monday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Monday, with the
exception of possible late night fog. Winds become light and
variable by early this evening, then an east to southeast flow at
5 to 10 knots is expected on Monday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Dry conditions will persist tonight through Monday as deep ridging
becomes reestablished across Mississippi, Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle and the upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast.
Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers or storms from
developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures to heat up on
Monday. Skies should be mostly clear tonight, and then partly cloudy
on Monday. Light and variable winds for most locations tonight,
expect for near the coast where a light offshore flow may persist.
Primarily light easterly winds across most of the area on Monday, but
with a slightly stronger onshore flow along the coast during the
afternoon hours.

Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s
over interior locations and from the mid/upper 60s to the lower 70s
closer to and along the coast. High temperatures Monday primarily be
in the upper 80s for most locations, with a few lower 90s possible
over interior southeast Mississippi and in the mid 80s along the
immediate coast. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

An eastward tilted upper level ridge has moved over the Mississippi
River, with an upper level trough off the East Coast. Shortwave
energy is directed south over the Southeast through the Short Term
in response to this configuration, but with a drier airmass moving
over the region, no rain is expected. Temperatures above seasonal
norms are expected, with mid 80s to around 90 expected for high
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures in the mid 60s
to low 70s are expected over most of the forecast area through the
period, except for low 60s over northeastern-most portions of the
forecast area.

Even with an increasing tidal cycle into mid week, light and
variable flow south of the coast will bring weak onshore swell and a
low risk of rip currents into mid week.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

By Thursday, the upper ridge has shifted east a bit. It then
flattens Friday into Saturday, as an upper level shortwave trough
approaches and moves over the Southeast. A surface ridge builds west
over the Gulf of Mexico mid week on, with organized southerly flow
moving Gulf moisture inland. Guidance is becoming more consistent
with the amount and placement of the moisture return. The latest
guidance is placing the better moisture further north over the
Southeast, and with that, keeping better PoPs for Friday and
Saturday generally north of Highway 84. Have a bit better confidence
with this more consistent pattern. Temperatures remain at or above
seasonal norms through the Extended.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Primarily light west to northwest flow tonight through
Monday night, but at times light and variable. Light south to
southeasterly flow is then expected Tuesday through Thursday. Seas
generally remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No
significant hazards to small craft are expected. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  88  67  88  68  87  68  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   70  85  69  84  70  85  70  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      71  85  70  84  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   64  87  63  88  64  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  63  89  64  90  67  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      64  86  63  88  65  89  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   64  88  63  88  64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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