Flash Flood Guidance
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Issued by NWS
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828 AWUS01 KWNH 070151 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070615- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0234 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 951 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Mid-Missouri Valley into west-central IA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070150Z - 070615Z SUMMARY...Short term training of thunderstorms from southwest to northeast could result in 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates and localized totals in excess of 2 inches over the next 4 hours. Localized flash flooding may result. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0130Z showed a solid line of thunderstorms extending from the central NE/IA border into southeastern NE and northeastern KS. Cells were more discrete closer to I-70 but a second, shorter line segment has become more organized, between RSL and SLN, extending SW to NE with slow eastward movement. The entire region resided ahead of a cold/occluded front analyzed over central NE/KS within a strongly divergent and diffluent portion ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough over the central to northern Plains. Eastward movement of the upper trough should gradually allow ongoing thunderstorm activity across the Missouri River Valley to shift eastward through 06Z, but short term training has been observed within some of the line segments. Northeastward movement of individual echoes within line segments will support training where slower eastward progression occurs or where line orientation matches the mean steering flow. This appears most likely from areas in northeastern KS into southeastern NE and southwestern IA over the next 2-4 hours. 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates and localized totals in the 2-3 inch range will be possible through 06Z. Localized flash flooding will be possible atop area-wide 3-hr flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 42629482 42279395 41209384 40499424 39539531 38719683 38709801 39419781 40259717 41809606 42349573