239
FNUS73 KMPX 111758
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Perch Creek WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1258 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
Humidity values are trending lower than previously forecast. Below
is the updated Spot Forecast for the Perch Creek WMA burn.

For this afternoon, expect mostly sunny skies humidity values
dropping into the lower 20s percent this afternoon as temperatures
climb into the 70s. There is  a small chance that humidity values
could fall into the upper teens. Surface level winds are forecast
to be primarily out of the west/northwest at 5-10mph today. These
lighter speeds will also mean that the wind direction could vary
north (or event south) at times from what is forecast for your
location.

Please contact our office at 952-361-6671 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................34 percent at ignition...Min 21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 6 to 10
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /13600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /109100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  MCR PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66  70  71  73  74  76  77  77  77  77  74  68
RH..............34  27  26  25  23  22  22  21  22  22  24  37
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   N   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   SW  S
20 FT wind spd..6   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  9   7   6   7
20 FT wind gust.13  14  15  18  17  16  16  15  13  12  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 3.4 6.1 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.4 7.6 5.2 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  13  16  17  16  16  15  15  14  9   6   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 12 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (91200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest 8 to
                    16 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 85.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west 15 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (34200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (102100
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Beitlich
Requested by...Chad August
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413764.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Chad.august@state.mn.us