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000
FXUS66 KMTR 141203
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
503 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Storm chances decrease this morning, but showers linger into
the afternoon before dry weather returns. A warming trend is
expected into the first half of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Shower activity continues as the low slowly moves inland this
morning. Not much to show convection-wise, likely due to the overall
environment leaning on the cold and relatively stable side of
things.

Expect showers to lighten through the late morning as the low
becomes less organized while moving inland. Some drizzle activity
could linger around the Bay Area and Central Coast through the late
afternoon, but does not look impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

And back to dry weather.

A ridge pattern builds in quickly behind this weekend`s rains,
calling for a warming and drying trend. By the mid week, expect
widespread 60 and 70 degree highs and the lower 80s for the more
interior areas. The ridge weakens just ahead of next weekend,
allowing for more onshore flow, and cooler temperatures, but still
dry weather.

Looking into the longer-term forecast: Models and ensemble members
continue to push any possible rain-makers to the north of the
region, spelling out a long period of dry weather. Some weak rain
chances could be possible deeper into the forecast, but much can
change between now and the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Mix of VFR and MVFR-IFR conditions across the board. Gusty easterly
winds are lingering at several stations with winds expected to gradually
transition westerly to northwesterly moving through the TAF
period. Radar shows showers becoming more scattered in nature with
showers continuing for most airports through 18-21Z with vicinity
showers lingering afterwards into the afternoon. The HRRR is
suggesting a second round of light showers may develop at STS
(low to moderate confidence) and APC (low confidence) during the
late morning hours (~16-20Z). VFR conditions should return by the
late morning hours. Guidance is hinting at MVFR conditions
reutrning towards the end of the TAF period but confidence is low
for now.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty, easterly winds
continue into mid morning before gradually turning westerly
throughout the TAF period. Showers will continue through the morning
hours with the potential for stronger gusts and temporary MVFR
conditions to develop if a stronger shower moves directly over the
airport.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty,
southeast winds will continue at SNS heading into the morning hours
as a drainage flow looks to develop. Winds at MRY and SNS will be
light to moderate through the remainder of the TAF period with winds
becoming more westerly during the late morning hours. Guidance
suggests that MVFR conditions may become more likely towards the end
of the TAF period but confidence remains low.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Moderate to fresh winds will temporarily weaken early Sunday
before  stronger northerly winds return late Sunday. Moderate to
fresh  northerly winds will last through the work week creating
hazardous  conditions for small crafts. Showers will linger over
the waters  through Sunday with chances diminishing in coverage
throughout the  day. After the low moves away, ridging will start
to build with dry  conditions expected to last through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Tuesday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Monday
     for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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