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000
FXUS66 KMTR 200327
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
827 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A bit cooler across the board today with cloud cover in addition
to a deeper marine influence. Continued cloudiness to start the
weekend and a dry stretch going into next week. Potential
drizzle/light rain chances mid-to-late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

It`s a relatively quiet evening across the area with low stratus
already onshore across portions of the North Bay and along the Big
Sur coast. Given the relatively deep/moist marine layer expect
stratus to expand to encompass much of the region late tonight
into Saturday morning before clouds retreat to the coast by
afternoon. Some orographically enhanced drizzle is possible
tonight along the coast as well. This is all represented in the
going forecast which is in good shape. Therefore no update is
needed for this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Well defined marine layer up to about 2,000 feet remains in place
this afternoon per Fort Ord profiler. Expecting this to remain in
place through into Saturday as the responsible upper low moves
through and the onshore flow increases through tomorrow. Though
the deep marine layer remains locked in through Saturday, the
associated cloud cover will mix out during the afternoon, much
like today, and give way to a rather pleasant afternoon. Locations
right along the coast may see more persistent cloud cover lasting
later in the day, however. Otherwise, expect northwest winds to
increase Saturday afternoon, becoming breezy up to 25-35 mph along
the coast and nearby coastal hills.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

To end the weekend and start next week, ridging takes over the
pattern once again with afternoon highs increasing by a couple of
degrees for Sunday and Monday. Tuesday brings the next big change
in the weather as the well-advertised upper low moves into the
region. The most notable changes that will be noticed Tuesday are
cooler temps and increased cloud cover. Really not much change to
the forecast beyond that through the rest of the week. Certainty
regarding rainfall remains about the same with still only about
25 out of 100 members advertise anything measurable. Again, the
most likely scenario as of now will be drizzle in the hills and
coastal areas with perhaps some pockets of sprinkles here and
there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 421 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR with moderate onshore winds. Stratus is expected to make a
return tonight lowering flight categories to MVFR/IFR late tonight
into Saturday morning for most terminals, except KSFO, KSJC, and
KLVK where models show VFR expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Low to moderate confidence on ceiling heights and timing for
KSTS and KOAK, as some models show a brief hour or two of low CIGs
near 13-15Z. VFR will return for all terminals near 17Z. Winds will
diminish overnight but will become moderate to breezy again Saturday
afternoon, especially near the coastal gaps and passes.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, but models show MVFR
stratus filling in near the terminal overnight. Will continue to
monitor if any updates to the TAFs are needed. Breezy NW/W winds
will start to diminish late tonight but will rebuild to
breezy/strong by Saturday afternoon.

SFO Approach Bridge...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with moderate onshore winds that are
expected to diminish overnight. Stratus will return late tonight and
lower to MVFR, but models suggest ceilings will get down to IFR.
With the models disagreement, low to moderate confidence that IFR
will occur overnight into early Saturday morning. Will continue to
monitor.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 421 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Light to moderate breezes continue through the remainder of Friday
before northwesterly winds increase to become strong and gusty
Saturday evening. Swell builds into Sunday out of the northwest
as gusty conditions continue but looks to diminish towards the
middle part of the next week. Light southerly swell continues to
move through the waters this weekend and through the next work
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPM
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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