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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FNUS73 KOAX 171134
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Center Island...USFWS
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
634 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 CDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Northwesterly winds this morning gusting to 40 mph will be
decreasing after daybreak with surface winds 10 to 20 mph though
the afternoon, strongest east of the Missouri River. Because of
all the rain we had recently and the morning clouds, humidity
should stay elevated through much of the day, only dropping to 35
to 45 percent this afternoon. Some areas in far southeastern
Nebraska that are clear this morning may get a little drier and
see humidity drop down to around 30 percent. Once the clouds
mostly clear out this afternoon, we should mix out pretty well
with mixing heights getting up to around 5000 feet this afternoon.
Transport winds will initially be good out of the northwest
through the morning into the early afternoon, but will become
pretty weak this afternoon across most of our area as we see a
couple fronts collide across the region towards sunset. These
fronts will also lead to shower and thunderstorm chances across
our entire area overnight, with some threat for damaging winds and
large hail primarily across southeast Nebraska.

Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 40 mph early this
morning and decreasing to 25 mph by noon and less than 15 mph by
3pm.

Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 35-40%

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 6 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 18 mph decreasing to around 5 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 10 to 21 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph decreasing to around 9 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph decreasing to around 8 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph decreasing to 9 to 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (81700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................5.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........91  82  78  72  54  43  38  37  57  58  58
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  50  52  55  57  61  63  66  67  68  69
RH..............74  80  74  66  64  56  52  45  42  39  37
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..17  15  15  16  15  13  11  10  9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.24  23  21  21  20  18  17  16  14  12  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.13  11  11  12  11  10  8   8   7   6   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.18  17  16  16  15  13  13  12  10  9   8
Surface wnd dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.21  19  19  20  19  16  14  13  11  10  9
Surface wnd gst.30  29  26  26  25  22  21  20  17  15  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.28  30  29  29  26  24  21  17  15  12  9
GFDI............6   4   4   5   5   5   4   5   4   4   3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100029  51  69  81  82  76  67  61  53  45  36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 4 mph shifting to the up to
                    9 mph early in the evening.
Surface winds (mph).North winds 6 to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
                    7 to 14 mph early in the evening, then
                    increasing to north 17 to 25 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................2.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........59     62     64     87     99     100
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Temp............68     64     57     54     52     48
RH..............37     45     57     64     74     86
20 ft wind......NW 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 7   N 10   N 12
20 ft wind gust.8      6      8      11     14     18
Eye level wind..NW 4   NE 4   NE 4   NE 5   N 8    N 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.6             6      8      11     13
Surface wind....NW 6   NE 6   NE 6   NE 9   N 13   N 15
Surface wnd gst.10     7      10     14     18     22
Mix hgt (ft)....4800   400    400    500    900    1500
Transport wind..W 8    NE 7   NE 13  NE 14  N 18   N 25
GFDI............2      1      1      2      2      3
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100026     12     5      5      17     33

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming sunny
                    (15-25 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. Rain showers likely in
                    the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 8 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
                    early in the morning.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 14 to 19 mph. Gusts up to 23
                    mph early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 12 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 21 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (30400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (104900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................5.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........99     88     67     56     38     13
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC
Temp............46     44     47     51     55     56
RH..............89     93     79     61     46     40
20 ft wind......N 12   N 11   N 11   N 13   N 15   NW 15
20 ft wind gust.18     16     14     18     19     19
Eye level wind..N 9    N 8    N 8    N 10   N 11   NW 11
Eye lvl wnd gst.14     12     11     13     14     14
Surface wind....N 15   N 14   N 14   N 16   N 19   NW 19
Surface wnd gst.23     20     18     22     24     24
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1100   2400   3100   4500   5500
Transport wind..N 24   N 22   N 22   N 21   NW 22  NW 22
GFDI............2      2      2      4      6      7
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100031     34     46     60     83     105

$$
Forecaster...Kern
Requested by...Sam Vanourney
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2411197.0/OAX
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sam_vanourney@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
