Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 AM EST Thu Feb 01 2024

...WINTER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

This is the third Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook in a series of
routine Winter/Spring Flood Potential statements intended to provide
insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding)
over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey, Southern
Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-Meteorological
factors which contribute to river flooding. These factors include
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water
equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future weather conditions.
This outlook does not address the severity of any future river
flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
February 6th through the 10th suggests above normal temperatures
and below normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.
The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from February 8th through the 14th
suggests above normal temperatures and near normal to above normal
precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding.
It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river
flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flooding
potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic
Service Area month to date were between 1 to 4 inches above normal
across the entire Hydrologic Service Area.

Snow Conditions – Below normal. Most of the Hydrologic Service Area
has no snow on the ground, except for high elevation inland locations
where there is a trace of snow on the ground.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running normal to above normal. Real-Time Water data can
be found by visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture – Above normal. Soil moisture and drought related data
and charts can be seen at
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif
and www.drought.gov.

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system were 11 percent above normal. Reservoir levels
across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs were 18 percent
above normal.

Summary - During the two-week outlook period ending on February 15th expect
temperatures to remain above normal while the probability for precipitation
during the first week will be below normal and normal to above normal during
the second week of this outlook period across the Hydrologic Service Area.
Flood potential during the next two weeks ending on February 15th will be normal.

For more information on the threat for river flooding
please visit: www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs

For complete weather information, visit our web site at:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY

You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY

The next Winter Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by this
office in two weeks, on February 15th, 2024.


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