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000
FXUS66 KOTX 150914
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
214 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a return of cooler and showery weather
early this week. The front will bring breezy conditions tonight
through Monday. Warmer, dry weather is expect to return later this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tuesday: A potent cold front has crossed the Cascade
crest which will usher in cooler temperatures and windy
conditions today. There`s a possibility of patchy blowing dust in
the Columbia Basin and a slight concern for fire weather due to
low humidity and gusty winds today. Although if there were
widespread pre-green-up fuels, fire concerns might have been more
pronounced, the early spring likely alleviated much of that
worry.

Snow levels are expected to sharply drop, increasing the chance of
light snowfall reaching even valley floors by Tuesday morning.
However, minimal to no accumulation is anticipated in lower
elevations, and the likelihood of significant snowfall in the
mountains remains low. Model forecasts still suggest a 30% chance
of Stevens Pass receiving at least 4 inches of snow through
Tuesday morning, while Snoqualmie has a higher probability at 60%.
Heavier snowfall rates this evening could lead to minor travel
disruptions, road temperatures this afternoon are anticipated to
remain warm enough to mitigate impacts. Tuesday is anticipated to
be the coldest day of the week, with afternoon highs ranging from
the low to mid-50s and a 40% chance of showers in the Cascades and
Panhandle. /Butler

Wednesday through Sunday: Disturbance dropping down
from the northwest in northerly flow with some lingering
instability allows for potential for some showers Wednesday. The
northerly flow remains in place as upper level ridge remains
offshore, however no significant disturbances nor instability
remain which should result in a dry forecast Thursday and Friday
that lingers on as the ridge moves inland. Ensembles hint at a
negatively tilted trof moving through late Saturday leaving a
zonal flow in place Sunday. This should result in a warming trend
that continues on into the weekend that might plateau Sunday. More
clouds overhead along with minor pops for light showers appear
for mostly mountain locations and a larger portion of North Idaho
over the weekend due to the earlier referred to negatively tilted
trof passage. All of the above is likely to result in a gradual
warming trend through this portion of the forecast. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Winds will increase overnight with the approach of a
cold front. The front will have very little precipitation
associated with it, so expect VFR ceilings ahead of and behind the
front. Localized visibility reductions due to blowing dust from
recently worked fields will be possible around Moses Lake from
18z-02z. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Forecasting
visibility reductions due to blowing dusts is a low confidence
endeavor due to the many variables involved. Soil conditions and
ag activity are a few variables. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        63  35  52  32  54  31 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  34  49  31  52  30 /   0   0  20  10  20   0
Pullman        56  34  48  30  52  30 /   0   0  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       66  41  56  37  58  35 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Colville       68  32  54  30  55  29 /   0  10  20  10  20  10
Sandpoint      62  35  50  33  50  30 /   0  10  40  40  20  10
Kellogg        57  36  46  34  49  32 /   0   0  40  30  30  10
Moses Lake     67  37  59  34  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      62  39  55  37  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           66  36  55  35  60  34 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$