Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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776 FXUS64 KOUN 090801 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 301 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The main issue during the short term will be storm chances (up to 40%) on Thursday afternoon across portions of western north Texas through southcentral and southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon through evening hours along with a marginal risk for these storms to become severe. Our synoptic pattern still has a closed upper low persisting over the Central & Northern Plains with a large amplitude trough negatively tilted across the western half of the country. The cold front that came through our area yesterday will be pushing through north Texas this morning then stalling around the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex. A combination of moist air overrunning the surface boundary/cold front along with the upper trough expelling a shortwave vort max along to just north of the Red River in southern Oklahoma may be sufficient to initiate organized severe convection in a strongly sheared and unstable environment between the Metroplex up through parts of our southern CWA. Drier surface air across western north Texas through southern Oklahoma should inhibit any surface-based convection keeping the higher severe risk southward toward the Metroplex. However model forecast soundings along the Red River showing potentials for elevated convection above a moist layer between 4000-6000 ft AGL with cooler steep mid-levels producing up to 1000 J/kg of un-capped CAPE when the shortwave is expected to move through. As a result, could see some elevated storms developing Thursday afternoon cross our southern CWA with a low-end severe risk with hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts as the two severe hazards. The severe risk will end shortly after sundown. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 During the long term, we`ll stay dry with a "wet" trend starting Sunday through much of next week. Overall temperatures will be near seasonably average for mid-May. The aforementioned upper low is expected to briefly cut-off from its main northerly (polar) jet flow and spin over the U.S. Southwest on Friday then recaptured late Saturday and start digging toward the Southern Plains with its axis across our area Monday when it may push our next cold front through. After a surface high moves through on Saturday, southerly low-level flow with increasing surface moisture start making its return forming a dryline across western Texas up through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by Sunday night and punching through on Monday after being overtaken by the cold front. Although storm POPs will return on Sunday as this next system moves through, can`t rule out the potential for a risk of severe storms on Monday across parts of our area with a dryline/surface boundary coming through and both models (GFS & ECMWF) projecting up to moderate surface-based instability and perhaps sufficient deep-layer shear across our southern CWA. Of course Monday is still 4 days out in time and models do deviate in time after Monday with a faster GFS solution moving out by Tuesday compared to a slower ECMWF solution sticking around not exiting until early Wednesday. We`ll stay in a "wet" pattern through the middle of next week although models still inconsistent with the mechanisms. The ECMWF digs another trough from the main northerly jet through our area while the GFS keeps us wet with shortwave disturbances from another cut-off system over the Southwestern U.S. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty northeasterly winds are forecast to develop by the late morning, especially at terminals along and south of Interstate 40. Potential exists for strong/severe thunderstorm development near the Red River vicinity by early afternoon, though impact to the SPS/DUA terminals remains low probability at this update. PROB30 groups were included to cover this potential. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 54 76 53 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 80 53 78 53 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 56 77 55 / 40 10 0 0 Gage OK 79 48 78 50 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 77 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 82 58 78 55 / 50 20 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...34