331
FXUS61 KPHI 010155
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
955 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure holds dominant influence over the region into
early Sunday, then some unsettled conditions could return late
Sunday and continue into Monday. High pressure may then build
back in Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
10 PM... no changes from earlier forecast.

Previous discussion...
Surface high pressure will dominate over the region through the
duration of the near term. This surface high is currently
centered just to our west and will gradually move eastward with
time. Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is on tap; pleasant and
tranquil conditions will continue. Forecast is on track this
evening, with only minor tweaks to the grids made.

Clear skies are expected tonight with very light WNW/NW synoptic
flow. Winds will likely go light and variable and/or calm for most
locations; efficient radiational cooling will take hold. Most
locations will see lows in the low 50s with the metro areas and
coastal locations seeing the mid to upper 50s. Areas that radiate
very well (e.g., the Pine Barrens in NJ) could see lows drop
into the upper 40s.

Another beautiful day is on tap for Saturday with high pressure in
control. Highs are expected to be warmer than those seen Friday;
mainly the upper 70s to low 80s can be anticipated. Dewpoints of the
mid 40s to low 50s can be anticipated, RHs will again be very
comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The center of high pressure shifts south and east off the coast
Saturday night through Sunday as a weak disturbance approaches
from the west. This will bring increasing high cloudiness
Saturday night with clouds thickening up through Sunday. By late
day Sunday there could be some showers moving into portions of
eastern PA and Delmarva eventually getting into NJ. However the
timing on this is uncertain so POPs are generally around 30
percent or so. SW flow will return on Sunday as well, bringing
warmth and humidity into the region, though cloud coverage will
likely limit temperatures from warming too much. High
temperatures will linger around the low 80s with mid 80s across
the metro areas.

Chances for showers continue Sunday night as the deamplifying upper
level disturbance moves through but overall this does not look to be
a very impactful weather maker. Some embedded thunder will be
possible over Delmarva but otherwise instability looks to be pretty
limited. A more mild night with lows only cooling into the low
to mid 60s.

Some showers may linger into Monday as the system slowly
departs. Offshore system will bring in some E to NE flow across
the region, helping temperatures stay on the cooler side. Highs
are only expected to be in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long range forecast continues to be a bit tricky as it`s looking
like the area will be situated between a stalled upper level low
over the western Atlantic near the Canadian Maritimes and an
approaching upper level trough from the west. This approaching upper
level trough may take some time to reach the east coast, however,
due to a blocking pattern that develops due to the stalled upper
low. This could keep the area largely under the influence of
upper level ridging through the first half of next week. That
said, there will still be the potential for some pieces of upper
level energy from the trough to sneak under the ridge helping
trigger some showers and thunderstorms each day Monday night
through Wednesday. Not expecting a washout though for any of
these days and generally speaking, POPs are only around 20 to 30
percent during this time frame. Expect highs generally in the
low to mid 80s with dew points generally 60 to 65 which will
make it feel a little bit humid but still not too bad.

Chances for showers and storms look to increase by the time we get
to next Thursday and the main upper level trough finally starts to
dig in over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Tonight...VFR/SKC. Winds generally light and variable
around 5 kt or less, though a west/northwest direction will be
favored. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. WNW/NW winds 5-10 kts backing W/WSW in the
afternoon. Sea-breeze moving through KACY will turn winds more
south/southwesterly in the afternoon. High confidence.

Saturday Night...VFR. Southwest winds around 5 kt or less. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the afternoon
due to some showers/storms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger.

Tuesday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the afternoon
due to some showers/storms, especially for eastern PA TAF sites.

Wednesday...Sub-VFR cigs possible with showers and storms
increasing through the day and into the nighttime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Saturday. Fair weather
expected through Saturday. Variable winds around 10 kts. Seas 2
feet or less.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, northwest winds 5 to 15 mph in the morning will
veer and become southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet. With fairly light winds and
shorter period swells, there will continue to be a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey
and Delaware beaches.

Saturday will be very similar to Friday. Northwest winds around
10 mph will become southeast later in the day. Breaking waves
will be 1 to 2 feet. This will once again result in a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/MJL/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MJL/Wunderlin