Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
543 FXUS65 KPUB 012334 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 534 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions linger into this evening over the San Luis Valley, then return to the Valley again on Thursday. - Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening over the central mountains/Palmer Divide/Kiowa County. - Generally unsettled weather late this week into the weekend. A cold front will arrive late Friday and bring scattered showers and storms to the area. - Temperatures warm up late this weekend into early next week. Critical fire weather conditions will continue to be a concern. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Detailed discussion: Currently, dry air/gusty west winds a little slow to push east away from the mountains this afternoon, with observations at 2 pm suggesting stronger winds remain confined to areas generally west of the I-25 corridor. As a result, low level moisture was holding on slightly longer than forecast over the far sern plains, and some modest CAPE of 400-800 J/KG has developed along the KS border, though deeper instability (CAPE of 2000+ J/KG) and tighter moisture gradient was farther located farther east in KS. Plenty of wind and dry air over the mountains, with southwest winds gusting 30-50 mph over most peaks and valleys. Tonight...Despite low level moisture lingering over the plains, most CAMs (including the experimental WoFS) keep convective initiation well east of the CO/KS border late this afternoon/evening, closer to the dryline and deeper instability. Suppose we could pop a storm over ern Kiowa County later this evening along the srn edge of the better upper level forcing, though bulk of the activity should stay farther east. Out west, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain possible into the evening over the mountains, and some weak convection may form along the Palmer Divide, as cold front pushes south this evening and slightly better moisture comes in behind the boundary. Red Flag Warning was verifying well in the San Luis Valley and will keep it up into the evening. Will also keep the plains warning up as well, as many models insist gusty wly winds will develop, and a few obs have started to stir (Raton and Walsenburg) as of 230 pm. Most precip ends after midnight, with gusty north winds on the plains gradually weakening toward Thursday morning. Wednesday...Still breezy to windy in the San Luis Valley as brisk wly flow aloft persists across the area, and will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the afternoon. Generally dry/slightly cooler conditions expected over the area in the wake of the cold front, with just enough moisture/instability lingering for perhaps some weak convection over the southeast mountains and Palmer Divide in the afternoon. Max temps will end up around 3-7 degf cooler than Wed numbers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 The upper level trough will continue to push through our area on Friday, continuing our trend of gusty surface winds and critical fire weather conditions across parts of our area. As of now, main fire weather concerns will once again be across the San Luis Valley, where the more humid air from behind the front will not reach. Additionally, with gusty west-southwest surface flow we may also see some spotty critical conditions over parts of the southern I-25 corridor due to gap flow. However, some of these areas remain pretty green as far as fuels go, so that may negate the need for any highlights beyond the valley. High temperatures will increase a bit from Thursday, with high-60s over the valleys and higher terrain while the eastern plains climb into the mid-high 70s. Late Friday afternoon into Friday Night, a secondary wave will pass through the area aloft, sending a cold front south across the plains. Just ahead of it, showers and thunderstorms will be possible thanks to low-level convergence, mainly close to the border. At this time, most of the activity in the models is east of the CO-KS border, but a few high-based storms over our far eastern counties will be possible. A few scattered storms may also be possible along the Palmer Divide thanks to localized upsloping. Moving into this weekend, a strong upper low will move down from the Pacific Northwest and onto the coast. Saturday will remain slightly cooler and somewhat unsettled thanks to lingering post-frontal moisture, with a few isolated to scattered showers across the higher terrain. Additionally, we may also see some lingering showers and storms over our far southeastern zones, leftover from activity once the front has fully moved south of our area. Sunday will warm quickly, with 70s to low-80s across the area. The main change to the long-term forecast in the last 24 hours has been much faster movement of the upper low as it transitions into our region. As the low digs down into the Four Corners Region Sunday evening, scattered showers and storms will pick up across the Central Mountains. By Monday, as the low continues to trek east along with the main axis of the upper trough, precipitation will largely depend on the track of the low. With the models speeding up progression somewhat, along with a more northbound track in recent runs, precipitation may be somewhat confined to the higher terrain and the Pikes Peak Region, with the trough moving off to our northeast by Monday night. This is largely what the current NBM guidance suggests. This may also hint at a more windy start to the work week, which would mean a heightened chance of more widespread critical fire weather conditions along with warming temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. A cold front has pushed through KCOS this hour, and is expected to arrive at KPUB within the next hour as well. Gusts to around 30kt will be possible at both stations until around 08Z tonight behind this front. North winds are expected at KALS by around 05Z as well, though they will be much lighter. Winds weaken and become more northeasterly through the early morning hours at both KCOS and KPUB, before eventually swinging around to southerly and southeasterly at both stations tomorrow after 18Z. West-southwesterly gusts to 30kt are expected at KALS tomorrow. Precipitation is not expected at any station through this TAF period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-232- 233-237. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...EHR