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000
FXUS65 KPUB 161730
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds today, especially over the far eastern plains.

 - Red Flag conditions likely along the I-25 corridor this
   afternoon.

 - Snow ending over the mtns, with some snow on grassy areas in
   the Pikes Peak Region early this AM.

 - Critical fire weather conditions again possible Wednesday
   afternoon for portions of the plains and San Luis Valley.

 - Unsettled pattern returns this weekend, with increasing
   precipitation chances area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Currently...

Mid level low pressure system was located over the La Junta region
while the surface circulation was noted over the general North
Platted region. Several areas of precip over the region were noted
with this wx system, with snow over the central mtns, rain and snow
showers over the Pikes Peak region and an areas of showers with
embedded thunder over the far SE Plains. This latter area of precip
was associated with the cold pool aloft associated with the mid
level circulation. Winds have mainly shift around to a general WNW
direction most areas and wind gusts were ranging from 40 to 55 mph
over the region at 3 AM.

Now through this morning...

Gusty NW winds will continue all areas. some accumulating snow is
likely over Teller and parts of N El Paso county, with most accums
occurring on grassy areas, but some slushy roads cant be ruled out.
(webcams in Woodland park show snow on grassy areas with wet
roadways). Based on latest hires guidance, the precip over the PPR
should move out after 8 AM with the precip pushing into east central
CO. Winds should start to decrease over the I-25 corridor region
later this morning, but much drier air will push out onto the I-25
corridor region, and this will allow Red Flag conditions to develop.
Snow over the central mtns should significantly decrease during the
mid morning hours.

This afternoon...

Storm will continue to move away from region but will intensify.
This will allow strong winds to develop over the far eastern plains,
with winds likely exceeding hi wind warning criteria by early
afternoon lasting into mid to late afternoon. Winds of 60 to 70 mph
will be possible. Although it will be very windy, it will be quite
cool and RH values are expected to be in the 20 to 30 percent range,
and these values are well above the low humidity values needed for
fire weather hilites.

Overall today temps will be rather warm with readings in the mid 70s
most of the plains with 60s over N El Paso county and the larger
valleys.

Tonight...

Things will calm down dramatically after sunset with winds sharply
decreasing. expect a mild night with mins U30s to M40s plains and
20s mtns. No precip is anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday: Midweek will bring a relatively quiet period of weather,
though there will be a concern for critical fire weather conditions.
Synoptically, a minor shortwave on the southern fringes of a
longwave trough will push across south central and southeastern
Colorado throughout the day. While an uptick in ascent is expected
with this feature, it will remain rather meager, with the strongest
forcing remaining to the north, and given that, dry conditions are
expected across the region. With that said though, an isolated light
shower can`t be ruled out along the central mountains where any
forcing will be maximized. As alluded to though, critical fire
weather conditions will be possible Wednesday afternoon. Winds will
increase during the afternoon from the modest wave and a developing
lee cyclone. These winds in combination with the warm temperatures
and dry air, and therefore low humidity values, will likely allow
for critical fire weather conditions to materialize across portions
of the plains and the San Luis Valley. Critical fire weather
condition will become less of a concern during the evening as winds
lessen and humidity values rise. Looking at temperatures a warm day
is in store for the area. Downsloping westerly winds and mostly
clear skies will allow for temperatures to warm well above seasonal
values for mid April.

Thursday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, periods of
quiet and active weather are anticipated. For the later part of the
week, Thursday and Friday, flow will become predominantly westerly.
Given no major forcing with this flow pattern, dry conditions are
expected. With that said though, isolated showers will still be
possible along the mountains and I-25 corridor, where orographic
forcing will possibly help light showers blossom. Then heading into
the weekend, more widespread active weather is expected. A troughing
pattern will push across the area starting late Friday into Saturday
and exit the region during Sunday. This pattern will increase
precipitation chances area wide. While finer details of this pattern
will need to be ironed out in the coming days, ensemble model
guidance is in relatively good agreement about the overall troughing
pattern. Then for the start of next week, a period of quieter
weather returns as ridging builds across the area. Given the lack of
major forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are anticipated for
south central and southeastern Colorado. As for temperatures, a cool
down is anticipated for most of this timeframe as cooler air behind
a series of cold fronts fills in across the area, dropping
temperatures to near and below seasonal values. Temperatures will
start to quickly rebound to warmer values for the start of next week
as the aforementioned ridge starts to develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Gusty northwest winds 15-30kts at the terminals
(strongest at COS and PUB) will diminish through the late
afternoon hours with generally light diurnal wind regimes
expected for the rest of the taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ058>060.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>230-
232-233.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ228>230-233.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ095>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW