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000
FXUS65 KPUB 172053
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
253 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening,
and then return on Thursday across the San Luis Valley.

- Cooler and cloudier conditions on Thursday, with light snow
  possible across the peaks of the central mountains and Pikes
  Peak region, and drizzle or light rain across portions of the
  I-25 corridor.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible across the San Luis
  Valley and western portions of the CWA through the end of the week.

- Cooler and unsettled weather across for the weekend with
  warmer and drier weather early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly sunny skies, warmer temps, and a dry air mass are once again
supporting critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Winds
have been slow to increase today, but still think additional
increases in wind speeds and gusts will occur through the afternoon
hours. No change with the current Red Flag Warning in place
including end time, with improvement likely into the evening hours.
Generally westerly flow in place will support isolated to widely
scattered shower development mainly across the central mountains,
but don`t anticipate much in terms of accumulations.

Advertised cold front will quickly move south across the eastern
plains this evening into the overnight hours, likely reaching the
area by late this evening. Will see an abrupt wind shift to the
north, with increasing winds/guts into the overnight hours. Don`t
think wind gusts will be too high, and will stay under High Wind
Warning criteria, but should still see gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
Low stratus will then push south across the plains through the early
morning hours on Tuesday. During this time, precip chances will stay
confined to the peaks of the central mountains and then the Pikes
Peak region, but still don`t anticipate much in terms of
accumulations. As the post frontal winds slacken and veer more
southerly, will see low level lift increase. With strengthening
omega within this saturated layer, should see at least drizzle
development across the Palmer Divide and El Paso county.
Temperatures do cool overnight and approach the freezing mark, but
think there will be enough cooling to support any freezing drizzle.
Column cools but with shallow moisture in place, think it will be
hard for any snow to development over the lower levels. Clouds will
likely stay in place for a good portion of the day, with much cooler
temps in the 40s and 50s expected on Thursday. Warmer and drier air
does remain situated across the San Luis Valley, with another day of
critical fire weather conditions expected on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Thursday night-Sunday night...Latest model data indicates moderate
westerly flow loft continuing across the Rockies into the weekend, as
embedded shortwave waves continue to translate through the stronger
westerly flow in place across the Northern Tier. Data also indicates
a secondary wave moving across the West Coast on Friday, which then
continues to translate across the Southern Rockies Saturday and Sunday.
The combined movement of these systems continues to bring differences in
location and timing of fronts as well as differences in coverage and
amounts of precipitation across region through the weekend.

With a lower confidence in the precipitation forecast until the finer
details can be resolved, we have again stayed with NBM, which has the
best coverage of showers across the Pikes Peak region Friday afternoon
and evening, with the potential for banded precipitation along and
north of the Palmer Dvd Friday night and Saturday morning, as a secondary
frontal surge pushes south across the Plains. Snow levels drop around
8000 ft Friday night, with potential for seeing some light snow accumulations
in the Pikes Peak region. Easterly upslope flow behind this secondary surge
will keep cool and cloudy conditions across southeast Colorado on Saturday,
with the best coverage of showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening
across the higher terrain, with added uvv from the embedded southern stream
wave.  By Sunday, drier northwest flow aloft takes ahold, with the potential
for a few afternoon showers over the higher terrain.

The westerly flow on Friday will keep critical fire weather conditions
in place across the higher mountain valleys, especially across the
San Luis Valley, and have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the valley
from noon to 7 pm. More spotty critical fire weather conditions may be
in place across the valley on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...Weak upper level ridging progged to build across the
Rockies into early next week, leading for a return of at and above seasonal
temperatures and the potential for a few afternoon showers, mainly over
the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions expected at COS and PUB through at least 05Z
Thursday, with breezy west to southwest winds 15-25kt expected
at the terminals this afternoon through the early evening hours.
A strong cold front remains progged to push south and west across
eastern Colorado tonight, with a northerly wind shift of 25-35kts
expected at COS and PUB between 05Z-06Z Thursday. MVFR and IFR
stratus remains expected to fill in behind the front, as low
level easterly upslope develops through early Thursday morning.

VFR conditions with breezy afternoon westerly winds of 15-25kt
expected at ALS over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-
227>230-233.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWARD
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW