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000
FXUS65 KPUB 211608
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1008 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning across the
  Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide. Dense Fog Advisory in
  effect.

- Critical fire weather conditions over and near I-25 on Monday.

- Fire weather concerns last through the rest of the week.

- Largely warm and dry most of this week. A new system will move
  in prior to next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Update to allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire on time, as
visibilities have improved across the Pikes Peak region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Shortwave energy still diving southeast across the region this
morning is helping to support some isolated light snow across the
plains. Veering 700mb flow along with some drying overnight has
helped to keep this additional development rather limited and with
additional drying over the next several hours, don`t anticipate much
snow development through the morning hours. What is more concerning
is the low stratus and fog in place across the mountain valleys and
plains. The already low stratus has lowered here recently and with
east southeast winds in place, think this trend will continue over
the next several hours. Additional lowering along with expanding fog
is appearing likely, with dense fog also developing in spots. At
this time, think the highest chances for more widespread dense fog
will be across the Pikes Peak region and the Palmer Divide. Given
increased confidence, did go ahead and issue a Dense Fog Advisory
this morning. Think patchy dense fog will be possible almost
anywhere across the mountain valleys and plains, especially the far
southern I-25 corridor, and will continue to closely monitor trends.
In this moist upslope flow, anticipate some light drizzle or
freezing drizzle to develop. While light freezing drizzle may be
observed, think the relatively warm surfaces temps will limit any
ice development. However, could see some spotty slick conditions,
mainly on elevated surfaces and bridges. Most guidance in agreement
with an improving trend with the stratus, fog, and precip
development by midday in the 18-19Z time frame. Did trend the
forecast this way, but would not be surprised to see some locations
hold onto the stratus slightly longer. Some warming expected today,
as the sun makes an appearance this afternoon, and with drier
weather expected for the remainder of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Breezy west winds will be present aloft on Monday, with a bit of
energy translating through the flow at the southern fringes of the
upper low passing along the Canadian border. With all of this, warm
and windy conditions shall persist throughout the day. Current data
has high temperatures above average across most of the area, with
70s to mid-80s. Meanwhile, gusty west winds will mix down to the
surface, downsloping off of the higher terrain onto the
mountains/plains interface. Between this and some lee troughing,
windy conditions will last most of the afternoon, especially in the
gap flow areas along I-25. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected, mainly along these gap flow areas and parts of the I-25
corridor. Finally, the passing energy may allow for a few isolated
showers across portions of the mountain peaks as well as the Palmer
Divide. However, any accumulations look to be light at this time.

A cold front will push south across the plains late Monday night
into early Tuesday. As a result, high temperatures will be 5-10
degrees cooler across our eastern zones Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, some near-critical fire weather conditions will be
possible across parts of the San Luis Valley. The passing wave to
our northeast, coupled with the surface front, may also bring enough
low-level convergence for some isolated to scattered showers across
the mountain peaks and adjacent lower elevations, but again chances
are still on the lower side and any accumulations would be light.

Breezy west-southwest winds will persist through most of the rest of
the week, as an upper low begins to push onto the west coast and
move into the Four Corners region. Out ahead of it, the rest of the
week will remain very warm and largely dry, with temperatures
continuing to climb into the 80s across most of our eastern plains.
Critical fire weather conditions will be possible each day, becoming
more of a concern towards the latter part of the week. While there
is still a bit of model inconsistency on the speed and track of the
incoming low, the current consensus is for it to push up into
Colorado around late Thursday night, bringing slightly cooler
temperatures and increased precipitation chances as we move into
Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Latest satellite imagery showing expansive low stratus remaining in
place across COS and PUB, while VFR/clear conditions are being
observed at ALS. Expect these VFR conditions with dry weather to
continue at ALS through the period, with no real big change for COS
and PUB through midday. No real big changes made to the current
TAFs, with the LIFR ceilings staying in place through 18-19Z. Did
make some minor adjustments to vis, with vis expected to fall to
around one half mile under fog and drizzle. Once again, improving
conditions expected in the 18-19Z time frame, with VFR conditions
and dry weather then in place for the remainder of the period. A
lighter south southeast wind is expected across COS and PUB, while
more light and variable winds are observed at ALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-227>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ