076
FXUS65 KREV 110932
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Above normal temperatures will prevail this weekend and into next
week with chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Tuesday for the Sierra. The remainder of next week is
expected to be warm and dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our ongoing warming trend made for quite the pleasant weather day
yesterday as highs reached the 60s and 70s across Sierra and western
Nevada locales, respectively, beneath mostly sunny skies. Height
rises aloft will maintain steady warming through the weekend as
daytime highs climb into the 70s and 80s today and Sunday.

Increased surface heating and confluent flow along the Sierra crest
will allow for a 15-20% chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon for portions of the Sierra. Best
chances favor near and south of the Tahoe Basin, although a few
showers are possible in Lassen and N Washoe counties. Chances for
showers and storms increase to 20-30% Monday afternoon, once again
spatially favoring the Sierra south US-50 with lesser chances with
northward extent. Potential hazards with any thunderstorm will be
brief downpours, gusty outflow winds, and occasional lightning.
While Tuesday afternoon will feature a very slight chance of
showers, we`ll begin to dry out in earnest for the remainder of next
week.

A bit slower warming is expected for next week as highs increase a
degree or two each day through Wednesday or Thursday, one of which
will be the warmest day of the next seven. In fact, Reno-Tahoe Int`l
Airport has a 30-40% chance of reaching its first 90F observation of
2024 on Thursday! There is some disparity among the latest suite of
ensembles, though the two competing solutions are very warm and dry
or warm and mostly dry with increasing chances of showers. In other
words, confidence is high on warm and mostly dry weather prevailing
into next weekend but how warm and the likelihood of showers are
unclear at this time.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail today with north-northeast
breezes in the afternoon. Chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms increase for Sunday and Monday afternoon for Sierra
terminals where odds reach 15-30%.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$