254
FXUS61 KRLX 181824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms this weekend could
cause localized high water, mainly this afternoon and evening.
High pressure surface and aloft builds through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

A mid-upper level short wave trough nearby this afternoon drifts
east of the area tonight, giving way to building mid-upper level
ridging on Sunday. With the elevated heat source effect, convection
this afternoon will be most likely in and near the mountains,
nearer the short wave. With surface dew points in the lower 60s
F and h85 dew points in the lower 10s C contributing to PW
values of around 1.25 inches, any thunderstorm this afternoon
could be heavy and slow moving if it could remain standing amid
the light flow.

As the short wave slowly drifts away, and the sun sets,
convection will die down, lastly in southeast portions of the
area this evening, as a weak mid-upper level low center in the
trough axis scoots by just to the south of the forecast area.

Areas of dense fog are likely to form again tonight. With
moisture more shallow compared with last night and this morning,
expect the fog to be more confined to the valleys, but also
most likely where ever showers or thunderstorms occur this
afternoon.

With the more shallow moist layer, any fog is likely to lift
and mix out quicker than was the case today.

With building mid-upper level ridging and drying Sunday, PW
values drop to just under an inch, and afternoon convection
will be less prevalent than today, and confined to the
mountains.

Central guidance temperatures reflect an above normal regime by
just a few degrees today, and a few more degrees tacked on for
Sunday, with lows tonight also above normal. Valleys tonight
will be a bit cooler than hill and ridgetops. Surface dew
points remain just below uncomfortable levels for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A few showers or storms, mainly across the higher terrain from peak
heating, should slowly dissipate Sunday evening. Drier, and
increasingly warmer weather is in store for Monday into Tuesday, as
high pressure surface and aloft builds into the region. Can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing during
peak heating hours either of these days, provided something can
break through the cap, but overall, expect much of the period and
area to remain dry. With the building ridge across the area, some
locations could even top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according
to the nws heat risk map, sensitive individuals could be affected,
even though this is below criteria for an advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point looking to be to our west, but confidence in this is low
at this point due to uncertainty. Another wave looks to move into
the area for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

Morning MVFR stratocumulus had lifted all but opposite ends of
th forecast area, PKB and BKW. It should lift above 3 kft at
PKB in the first hour or two of the forecast but ceilings at BKW
may stay close to 3 kft this afternoon.

Diurnal convection this afternoon will be most prevalent in and
near the mountains. Any thunderstorm can produce MVFR to LIFR
conditions and gusty winds.

Any convection will die down around sunset, but dense fog is
likely to form again overnight. The fog forecast may need to be
adjusted to account for which TAF sites get rain from a shower
or thunderstorm, but some fog or mist is still likely even in
the absence of rain this afternoon and evening at a particular
location.

The fog will lift into IFR stratus and then MVFR stratocu again
Sunday morning, but this process will likely be faster than was
the case today. A VFR day will then ensue, with less afternoon
convection to follow, compared with today.

Light north to variable surface flow this afternoon will become
calm tonight, and then light and variable on Sunday, all beneath
light north flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms this af could vary. Timing and intensity of fog
formation overnight tonight, and lifting of fog Sunday morning,
could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
in the mountains. IFR in fog possible overnight Sunday night
into early Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM