Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 281335
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
935 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track along the southeast coast this morning,
exiting offshore and to the northeast by this evening. High
pressure builds from the Gulf Coast states Friday. A backdoor
front edges south toward the area Easter Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM EDT Thursday...

For the near term update this morning, while some light rain may
linger in the far eastern Piedmont, the main precip has largely
diminished and shifted eastward as the coastal low should
kick off east of the mid-Atlantic later today. Ridging should
win over from the west and cloud cover should also scatter out
with the subsidence going into this afternoon. Some gradient
winds look to also increase out of the NW so the afternoon will
also be a bit gusty near 20-25 mph for most locations and a bit
higher in the mountains. Lower some dewpts a bit for this
afternoon with mixing but still look to stay outside fire danger
concerns as the resultant RH values along and east of the Blue
Ridge are mainly low 30s. Previous discussion follows...

As of 120 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers/few thunderstorms this morning east of the Blue Ridge,
exit this afternoon.

2. Gusty winds this afternoon.

Expect the slow moving front and low pressure along the coast of
the Carolinas today to keep periodic showers going through at
least this morning east of the Blue Ridge, with best
chances/coverage along/east of Lynchburg-Danville-Reidsville
line.

Some elevated instability with models not handling well has
provided some cloud to ground lightning strikes as far north as
Lynchburg. Latest trends still favor some elevated instability
over the southside VA into NC piedmont into the mid morning
hours so keeping slight chance of thunder there.

Further west, should be seeing clearing skies by lunchtime. As
the low starts to deepen somewhat, surface winds from the north
to northwest will pick up so afternoon winds will be gusty to
20-30 mph, mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge.

Still looks like temperatures to vary from cooler readings over
toward Farmville/Charlotte Court House today compared to the
foothills. Cold air advection and wind may keep highs cooler in
the mountains. Looking at mid 40s to around 50 in the higher
ridges, to lower 50s New River Valley as well as
Farmville/Charlotte Court House, with upper 50s to lower 60s
around Roanoke/Lynchburg, south into the NC foothills/piedmont.
How quick the cloud cover exits will impact highs east of the
mountains, so a low to moderate confidence on highs.

Clear skies tonight as winds start to diminish somewhat though a
breeze will remain as temperatures drop back closer to normal
with 30s areawide. A northern stream shortwave may bring some
clouds toward Southeast WV late, and any precip looks to stay
north of us.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1). Dry, breezy, and cooler conditions expected on Friday.

2). West-East Frontal Boundary slowly sags southward into the
northern half of the CWA during the weekend resulting in
increasingly unsettled weather conditions.

High pressure will build eastward from the MS Valley into the
southeastern U.S. Friday into the weekend. Meanwhile the flow
aloft will becoming increasingly zonal in the wake of the
departing upper trough of Thursday. A fast moving upper-level
disturbance tracking across the Ohio Valley into PA Saturday
will help to form a baroclinic zone/frontal boundary to our
north over the weekend. This front will gradually work its way
south, mainly through convective outflow and cooling, into the
first part of next week leading to an increasingly unsettled
pattern. Most of the CWA will remain dry Saturday, but could see
some showers work their way into the northern portions of the
CWA late Saturday, especially along/north of the I-64 corridor.
As the front sags a bit further southward through the weekend,
look for slightly better chances for showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm, mainly west of the Blue Ridge, for
Sunday. Precipitation over the weekend will be spotty and light
with fast flow aloft limiting the duration of any convective
elements. In addition, precipitation should remain mostly north
of the VA/NC border, with little if any precipitation expected
for the NC Foothills and Piedmont. Due to the convective nature
of precipitation expected through the weekend, timing will be
somewhat problematic, tied to subtle disturbances riding through
the westerly/zonal flow.

Temperatures will bottom out Friday morning as a pocket of
around -6C to -8C sweeps through the region behind the departing
upper trough. Cold advection along with a tightening pressure
gradient developing between the departing coastal low and high
pressure building to the south of the region will help bring
gusty west winds to the area. A Wind Advisory may needed to be
considered with later forecasts for areas along/west of the
Blue Ridge, especially the higher terrain. While Friday will be
a bit on the chilly side, westerly flow through much of the
atmosphere will help to quickly moderate temperatures back to
above normal levels for the weekend.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Unsettled weather conditions expected through the period.

2) Looking at mostly above normal temperatures through the
period.

3). Best chances for widespread precipitation are expected
Tuesday into Wednesday.

A lingering baroclinic zone/frontal boundary will linger across
the CWA Monday through Tuesday, then will be pushed back to the
north by Wednesday as a deepening upper trough and frontal
system approach from the west. Monday and Tuesday will be
relatively unsettled with scattered showers lingering along/near
the baroclinic zone. This should remain primarily north of the
VA/NC border, with the best chances for precipitation west of
the Blue Ridge and north of U.S. 460.

By late Tuesday going into Wednesday, broad upper ridging across
the southeastern U.S. will help to push the lingering frontal
boundary/baroclinic zone back north toward the PA/MD border.
Later in the day Wednesday, a deepening upper trough and much
strong frontal system will approach from the west with showers
and a few thunderstorms possible across the entire region by
Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain above normal until the passage of the
frontal system on Wednesday. On average look for quite mild
minimum temperatures for late March/early April, well above
freezing, in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures will be above
normal as well, but not quite as much as the lows given
widespread cloud cover and precipitation. Maximum temperatures
should average from the 60s west to the lower 70s east.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

MVFR or lower ceilings will improve to VFR by midday across the
entire forecast area. Any showers will be brief and mainly
impact DAN and points east this morning.

Northwesterly winds will increase and become gusty following a
frontal passage by afternoon, mainly along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Gusts may reach 20 to 25 knots, possibly higher along
the ridges after 18Z Thursday. Gusty winds start to abate after
00z/Fri.

Could see some low end VFR clouds reach BLF/LWB by end of this
taf period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Gusty northwest winds Friday. Conditions will be mainly VFR,
though possible MVFR at LWB/BLF early.

Another front approaches from the north this weekend bringing
another chance of showers and possible sub-VFR conditions,
moreso over the mountains. Better chance for sub-VFR with
showers, possible storms Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP/AB
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...WP


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