Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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847 FXUS64 KSJT 111802 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 102 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Early this morning, skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 60s. A stationary front was more or less washed out near the Rio Grande, with easterly winds carrying gulf moisture all the way into west Texas. At the upper levels, a shortwave ridge was over Texas, while a trough was moving through the southwestern US. This upper-level trough will approach Texas this morning and eject multiple mid-level impulses over the region through the day. Models show elevated instability of 500-1500 J/kg above the inversion. As mid-level moisture increases with the developing southwest flow aloft, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase throughout the day. Most of these storms are not expected to be severe, but a few could produce some large hail where steeper midlevel lapse rates occur. Cloud cover should help to hold temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight as additional impulses pass over the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Sunday morning as a warm front moves through. An isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible as GFS MUCAPES increase as much as 2500 J/kG. Main concern is an large hail, but there is also the potential for an isolated tornado, with SPC having a 2 percent risk south of I-20. Shower and thunderstorms become isolated by Sunday as the upper low over southern Colorado moves into Kansas. Monday a Pacific front will move through with drier west to northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. An isolated thunderstorm is possible Monday, mainly along/east of a Coleman to Eden to Junction line. Wednesday, severe thunderstorms will again be possible, as south winds advect in significant moisture from the Gulf, and a shortwave moves through, and rounds a large scale upper trough over the Western U.S.. With strong instability, large hail, damaging winds and localize flooding will be possible. Thursday, a cold front with drier air will move through, with isolated thunderstorms possible...some possibly severe, as moisture and instability will be slow to clear. Warm and drier air are then expected Friday with lighter west to northwest winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening mainly across the western half of the area. Confidence was not high enough to place a mention of thunder at any of the terminals but will monitor radar trends the rest of the afternoon and amend as necessary. A better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur on Sunday morning as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Otherwise, ceilings will lower back down to MVFR/IFR levels overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 77 61 84 / 50 90 20 0 San Angelo 64 85 61 90 / 50 60 10 0 Junction 66 86 65 93 / 50 50 10 10 Brownwood 64 76 64 85 / 50 90 30 10 Sweetwater 62 80 60 85 / 50 80 0 0 Ozona 65 85 61 89 / 40 30 10 0 Brady 65 78 65 85 / 50 80 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...42