125
FXUS65 KSLC 022148
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
348 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A relatively cool and unsettled pattern will persist
through the remainder of the week, with the next weather system
bringing showers to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Thursday
night into Friday. A rapid warmup Saturday will precede a strong
storm system and associated strong cold front that will arrive
this weekend. This system will bring strong, gusty winds and snow
to the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A shortwave trough is
currently pushing southeastward from southern ID and is expected
to graze across northern UT and southwestern WY overnight.
Showers associated with this shortwave, currently situated over
far northwestern UT this afternoon, will overspread across the
northern third of the forecast area overnight and into the morning
hours. The main concern with these showers will be gusty outflow
winds and a low (10%) chance for lightning, especially this
evening...given dry, well-mixed low levels. Short-term models are
even hinting at some developing instability early Friday morning
(4AM-8AM) near the central to northern Wasatch Front which may
produce a few additional showers. Mountain snow accumulations will
be very minor, around 1-3 inches across the highest elevations.

Coverage of showers will gradually diminish through the morning
hours as the shortwave trough continues eastward and drier air and
shortwave ridging moves in. Skies will largely clear by the early
evening aside from a few mid- to high-level clouds. Friday high
temperatures will still remain around 5-10 degrees below normal
across northern areas and near normal across southern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Our May `wait-spring-isn`t-
quite-here-yet` system is upon us this weekend/early next week. It
will bring valley rain, mountain snow and gusty winds with it for a
few days. This low, and its associated cold front, will track
through the region from west to east as early as late Saturday with
widespread valley rain and accumulating mountain snow to northern
Utah by Sunday while the low begins to elongate in size. This would
bring widespread impacts to the intermountain west however at this
moment much of the precipitation impacts are expected north of the I-
70 corridor.

Minor impacts from increasing southerly winds ahead of this low are
forecast across much of western Utah beginning Saturday evening.
Winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph are anticipated with
even further increases headed into Sunday. Gusts closer to 60 mph
are possible on some ridgetops and across Dugway as a 65 knot 700 mb
LLJ is set up during the overnight hours. Headed into Sunday
morning, these areas, as well as across the Tooele and Rush valleys,
through southwest Utah along I-15 and to Cedar City are areas
where the wind forecast is most uncertain.

Increasing southwesterly winds are forecast Sunday afternoon across
eastern Utah where a high confidence exists on gusts exceeding 50
mph as the frontal boundary continues its progression eastward.
Given all the above conditions, headlines for wind are under
consideration for many locations for Sunday and possibly starting
Saturday as well. Trends will continue to be evaluated with the next
model run.

The general consensus is that the center of the low will track
through Nevada and through northern Utah headed toward Wyoming
through Monday. As you might expect with an early spring storm
system there are uncertainties as to how much snow is going to end
up falling on these ridges across the Wasatch Mountains and western
Uintas. Snow to liquid ratios in these areas from Sunday afternoon
through early Monday are forecast in the 10 to 15 to 1 range.
Between these ranges and QPF ranges, there`s a decent spread to
snowfall amounts ranging from 6 inches to 2 feet in the higher
elevations (>8000 ft) with an average snowfall forecast near a foot.
Even the Wasatch Back is expected to see some accumulating snow with
this system; anywhere from 1 to 4 inches. Central Mountain
locations, while they are expected to see accumulating snow on their
ridges, are more likely to see less snowfall at closer to 6 inches.

Also of note, many of the Wasatch Front area benches early Monday
morning have a good shot of waking up to some snowfall on their
lawns; but accumulations are expected to be very minimal just enough
to ruin any lawn mowing plans for the day.

Additional mountain snow showers are likely to persist Monday and
Tuesday as weak shortwaves track around the aforementioned low until
it tracks well east of the region mid-week. A fairly dry forecast is
anticipated headed into the remainder of the week though the
forecast toward the latter half of the week becomes more uncertain
as a potential next trough moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Predominantly VFR conditions will continue
tonight into tomorrow. A cold front will bring isolated to scattered
rain showers from roughly 08-13Z, along with ceilings below 6kft AGL
and a brief burst of northerly winds 10-15 kts. VFR conditions could
lower into MVFR range with rain showers, with a 10% chance of
vicinity lightning. Thereafter, expect clearing skies. Generally
north winds are expected throughout the period, especially after the
cold front passage.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A weak cold front will push
as far south as central Utah overnight, bringing lower ceilings
along with isolated to scattered rain showers from roughly 03-15Z,
especially along and east of I-15. VFR conditions could lower into
MVFR range with rain showers. A few mountain showers may persist
tomorrow north of I-80, with clearing elsewhere. Most locations will
see southwest winds today switch to northerly winds with the front.
&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/NDeSmet/Van Cleave

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