Text Products for FWS Issued by TOP

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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FNUS73 KTOP 111820
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SPOT FORECAST for NE Randolph Wildfire...Riley County Emergency Management
National Weather Service Topeka KS
120 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 CDT on April 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon, northwest winds 20-25 mph with gusts around 35
mph will last into early evening before falling off quickly around
sunset. With deep mixing still in place, RH will continue falling
into the 15 to 20 percent range this afternoon, before rebounding
over the course of the evening.

Friday will see much lighter winds as surface ridging moves
overhead in the morning. This will keep winds around or below 5
mph before noon, generally from the west. High pressure moves off
to the east for the afternoon, allowing winds to become southerly
5 to 10 mph through the evening. RH starts off around 50 percent
in the morning but falls to around 20 percent by the afternoon,
with smoke dispersal improving throughout this time as mixing
increases.

Saturday will see a return of breezy conditions as
southerly winds strengthen to around 17 mph with gusts to around
25 mph. RH falls to around 20 to 25 percent both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons as temperatures climb well into the 80s. Sunday
at least looks less windy, still from the south but only around
10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........61 at forecast start...Max 64.
RH..................21 percent at forecast start...Min 16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northwest at 22 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Northwest winds 19 to 22 mph
                    with gusts to around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 8400
                    ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /243500 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Max...excellent /245900 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0
Temp............61  63  64  64
RH..............21  17  16  16
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..22  22  21  19
20 FT wind gust.29  30  29  28
Mix hgt (kft)...7.9 8.2 8.3 8.4
Haines index....4   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/1000244 246 242 242

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 34.
RH..................Max 54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 9 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph decreasing to 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (223400 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (59900 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (3900 knot-ft) late in the night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............63     57     48     43     41     38
RH..............17     19     25     30     37     42
20 FT wind dir..NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     W
20 FT wind spd..18     9      7      6      6      5
20 FT wind gust.28     15     14     11     9      11
Mix hgt (ft)....8300   700    500    500    500    400
Haines index....6      6      6      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/1000223    11     6      5      5      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    south 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (49000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............34        48        63        70
RH..............51        35        21        18
20 FT wind dir..W         NW        NW        SW
20 FT wind spd..5         6         5         6
20 FT wind gust.9         9         8         12
Mix hgt (ft)....400       900       3600      4600
Haines index....5         5         5         5
SDspl kt-ft/10004         5         24        45

$$
Forecaster...Reese
Requested by...Russel Stukey
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410388.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rstukey@rileycountyks.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
