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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191835
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
135 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Elevated frontal zone currently extends across SE OK and will mark
a favored zone for elevated convection to develop later tonight
in advance of the next wave. Guidance remains consistent with
expanding showers and scattered storms across southeast OK late
tonight and more so during the day Saturday. Further north, dry
and cool conditions expected overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to expand in coverage
across the far southern portion of the forecast area tomorrow with
lower confidence in northward advance of any light rain. Guidance
trends have consistently been southward with the precip footprint
as the mid level passes. Areas north of Interstate 40 are
trending drier and may well have no rainfall through the weekend.
Widespread cloud cover and influence from any rains will keep high
temps well below normal on Saturday.

Rains end Saturday night with light winds, dry and mild weather
on Sunday as sfc high pressure builds across the region. Winds
increase on Monday with a warming trend continuing into Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. Currently the frontal passage
appears mostly dry, however shower and storm chances trend upward
in its wake as the flow aloft becomes more unsettled from mid to
late next week. It appears likely that severe weather potential
will increase by late next week as both instability and wind
profiles improve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Across the KMLC/KFSM sites, VFR TAF elements will
prevail, though through 00z there will be periods of MVFR cigs.
After 08-09z RA/-TSRA chances will begin to increase so will
include PROB30 groups with MVFR cigs/vsbys in thunder. With
increasing coverage later in the period, will carry MVFR
cigs/vsbys in thunder as prevailing from 14z/15z on through the
remainder of the valid period. Across the remaining NE OK and NW
AR sites, VFR TAF elements will prevail through the entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  44  66 /  10  30  20   0
FSM   52  63  47  68 /  50  50  30   0
MLC   50  59  46  66 /  70  70  50   0
BVO   41  64  41  66 /  10  20  10   0
FYV   45  66  41  65 /  20  30  20   0
BYV   45  64  42  63 /  10  20  20   0
MKO   49  64  46  64 /  40  40  20   0
MIO   42  62  40  63 /   0  20  10   0
F10   49  62  46  64 /  50  50  30   0
HHW   49  56  47  64 /  70  90  70   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23