Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 151914
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight into Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Aside from a few showers initially across southern OK, the main
focus for this afternoon and evening turns to the dryline out west
and then later an eastward moving Pacific front in association
with a strong upper system. CAMs and some global models show
development over the TX South Plains or western north TX with
isolated development possible north up the dryline near the TX
Panhandle/OK border region, and then increasing potential up into
SW KS closer to surface low. The activity to the south may
organize into an MCS that gradually weakens this evening as it
lifts northeast into southern OK. The MPAS and HRRR have shown a
signal for strong to near severe wind gusts coming out of the
northern fringe of the decaying MCS across eastern OK this
evening. Storms that develop farther north are not expected to
impact our area as they will likely miss our area to the north and
west. Another round of scattered showers and a few storms is
expected ahead of cold front after midnight across E OK, with this
activity then progressing east into western AR into Tuesday
morning. Severe threat will be pretty limited based on weak
instability, though some gusty winds are possible out of even
showers based the howling winds off the deck. Current data still
indicates afternoon storm development ahead of front will be east
of NW AR.
Skies will clear behind the morning showers and storms, and mixing
of strong SW winds aloft at the base of the advancing upper
low/trough will lead to a pretty windy day across the area. Gusts
near advisory criteria are likely, especially across NE OK and NW
AR. After discussions with neighboring offices, will hold off on
a headline issuance for now given borderline nature and storm
threat tonight.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Quiet weather is expected Wednesday, but moisture return will be
underway as the Tuesday boundary washes out. A cold front will
advance southeast across the area Thursday in response to height
falls across the north-central CONUS. This front will impinge on
an increasingly moist and unstable airmass and yield an elevated
severe storm threat. Today`s data suggests this boundary will
stall over northern TX/ArkLaTex. After a lull in the action
Friday, warm advection north of this boundary and ahead of a
secondary cold frontal push from the north will lead to another
round of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday. Model QPF
signals suggest potential for locally heavy rainfall and possibly
some localized flooding as well. The secondary front will clear
things out by Sunday, and the start of next week will be below-
average cool. In fact, the typical cool valley sites across NE OK
and NW AR could drop into the 30s by next Monday morning.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Scattered to broken mid and high clouds should remain common
across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon
while broken MVFR ceilings continue over Southeast Oklahoma. This
evening and overnight tonight...MVFR ceilings are forecast to
spread back over the CWA ahead of a Pacific cold front/dryline
expected to move into the region early Tuesday morning. Rain
chances become possible for a period early evening with the
greater potential along/near the boundary late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Thunderstorm potentials will be possible with the
boundary as well and will add Tempo groups for timing. Behind the
exiting precipitation...MVFR ceilings are forecast to remain
Tuesday morning across the CWA with a clearing line making it into
Eastern Oklahoma late in the TAF period. Winds through tonight
remain southerly for most locations and become gusty behind the
precip and more so out of the southwest behind the dryline late
Tuesday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 66 85 56 85 / 70 30 0 0
FSM 66 82 62 87 / 50 60 0 0
MLC 67 85 58 86 / 60 30 0 0
BVO 63 83 52 83 / 70 30 0 0
FYV 63 80 57 84 / 50 60 0 0
BYV 65 78 60 82 / 40 50 0 0
MKO 66 82 57 83 / 60 40 0 0
MIO 65 81 55 80 / 50 60 0 0
F10 66 82 56 84 / 70 30 0 0
HHW 65 81 63 84 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20