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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191745
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy today with isolated to scattered snow
  showers.

- Warming trend and dry Saturday into Sunday afternoon.

- Rain chances return Sunday night through Monday into early
  Tuesday. Greatest chances (~40 to 70 percent chance) during
  the day on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Little needing updating early this afternoon. Mostly cloudy
skies with scattered snow showers continue to linger. These snow
showers could bring a brief burst of snow, although visibilities
will generally be above 2 miles. Breezy to windy conditions are
also still expected today. For the most part these winds have
remain below advisory criteria, and are expected to continue
this trend. Thus little updates needed at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Wrap around light snow showers continue to be found across much
of the CWA, although little impacts have been noted. Will
continue mention of these through the day. Breezy to windy
conditions are also expected today. This still looks to be just
short of wind advisory criteria, although perhaps a few isolated
gusts near 45 mph are possible. For now will continue to hold
off on any wind headline. Otherwise look for more cool
temperatures today in the 30s.

UPDATE
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Snow showers continue to move through the area while gusty
northwest winds continue. This is all in line with previous
forecast, so little changes are needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Current surface analysis shows high pressure stretching from
north central Montana southeastward towards the central plains,
while low remains over Ontario. Our area remains in the pressure
gradient between the two, thus the continued gusty northwest
winds. Broad upper low remains centered over eastern Ontario,
bringing broad cyclonic flow to our area and continued isolated
to scattered light snow showers.

For today, cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the area as
upper low gradually meanders off to the east, resulting in
continued isolated to scattered snow showers through the day.
Lasted high-res guidance continues to be in agreement with this,
thus have just gone with broad-brushed chances in the morning
and afternoon over the area. Aforementioned tightened pressure
gradient remains over the area, but a look at forecast soundings
shows a little less wind to mix down than had been shown the
past couple of days. Therefore, expect a windy day but speeds
should remain below wind advisory criteria. A few snow showers
may linger into the evening hours tonight, but clearing will
develop from southwest to northeast with winds gradually easing
up.

Quiet weather Saturday into the daytime hours on Sunday as ridge
to the west pushes over, which will also result in a pleasant
warming trend.

A compact Pacific low busts down the ridge and pushes into our
area late Sunday into Monday. This will bring increasing chances
for rain. Greatest chances (about 40-70 percent chance) come
during the day on Monday, with likely rain over most locations.
This is not expected to be heavy, with latest NBM guidance
showing about a 30 to 50 percent chance of seeing a tenth of an
inch or more, with chances for a quarter inch remaining under 25
percent over the area.

A little rain may linger into Tuesday morning, with drier
weather returning through Wednesday afternoon. Guidance then
indicates the possibility of returning to an unsettled pattern
to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Lingering low cloud and scattered snow showers could bring
periods of MVFR today. Used VCSH with TEMPO groups for TAF sites
with at least a 50% chance of snow showers through this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Snow showers should
diminish this evening, however, lower clouds may linger before
lifting back to VFR heights overnight tonight. Mainly clear
skies are then expected for Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will
be found today, diminishing tonight. Northwest winds could then
linger through Saturday, although should be less gusty.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Anglin