Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221501

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1101 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

High pressure centered over Ontario Province will maintain chilly
weather through the end of the week. A weak trough crossing our
region may generate some scattered snow showers southeast of Lake
Ontario on Friday. Dry weather is expected this weekend while
remaining cool. Temperatures will then finally climb back to more
normal levels by early next week as persistent deep troughing over
the Northeast moves off the east coast.


High pressure stretches from Hudson Bay southwest into the Central
States while the center of a Nor`easter is shifting east of New
England today. Northwest flow between these two systems will
continue cool temperatures today. High temperatures will reach the
mid to upper 30s at lower elevations and U20s/L30s across the higher

Broad but broken moisture field continues to circulate the
Nor`easter today with scattered/broken high level clouds streaming
across western and central NY near midday. Dry conditions are
expected to continue today with the lack of enhanced moisture.

Tonight, a mid-level trough with weak vort max will drop south
across the eastern Great Lakes. Cold air advection and increased
moisture will add to northwest upslope flow with several models
indicating a slight/low chance for some light scattered lake-
enhanced snow showers. The core of the colder air aloft, falling
toward -12C at 850mb will arrive closer to Friday morning. Less than
an inch of accumulation is expected with any snow showers that do
develop overnight. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and teens at
higher elevations.


Closed mid level circulation passing southeast across the area
Friday will bring some diurnally driven snow showers and flurries
with more coverage expected in favored lake/upslope areas south and
east of Lake Ontario. Any snow will have a tough time sticking to
the roads during the day due to air and road temperatures above

The mid level system pushes east Friday night, but troughing remains
over the northeast CONUS through Saturday, with several pieces of
shortwave energy slipping southward. Limited moisture and lift will
limit precipitation to snow flurries or a few passing snow showers
across central New York.

Canadian high pressure will then ridge southward into the region by
Saturday night. This will result in dry weather, with some lingering
lake enhanced clouds south of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs averaging
in the lower to mid 30s and lows ranging from the teens to mid 20s.
The coldest low temperatures will likely be across the Southern Tier
valleys and in Lewis county.


Quiet and cool conditions will start this period as a broad and dry
area of high pressure presses southward from Canada and across the
Eastern Great Lakes region. This surface high will be squeezed
between a storm system passing by to our south and east, and a
developing storm system over the Plains. Strong subsidence will
bring a prolonged period of clear skies starting Sunday afternoon
behind a shortwave dropping across northern NY/NE...and persisting
through Monday night and into Tuesday.

Through the day Tuesday we will see mid and high level clouds build
across the region as moisture increases behind the surface high
pressure and a shortwave from the Plains approaches. There is still
uncertainty to the track of the shortwave, but there will be chances
for mainly rain showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Additionally, a light southerly flow behind the surface high will
bring a taste of early Spring Tuesday and into Wednesday. While we
will likely remain cool Monday with little mixing under the surface
high, Tuesday and Wednesday should feature afternoons that have
temperatures rising to or above normal. This would place maximum
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the region.


SCT-BKN VFR cirrus conditions to stream across our region near
midday. Northwest flow will continue with dry weather through the
daylight hours of today.

A disturbance will approach the region tonight. Increased moisture
and upslope northwest flow will result in a slight/low chance for
some scattered lake-enhance snow showers. The best chance will be
across KROC late tonight into Friday morning. Reductions in Vsbys
are possible in any snow shower activity but coverage in snow
showers is too limited to include in the KROC TAF.


Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. A chance of
Lake Effect snow south/southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday night and
Saturday through Monday...VFR.


Northwest winds will increase this evening as a disturbance
approaches the eastern Great Lakes. A marginal Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for this evening for the south shore of Lake
Ontario. Winds and waves will diminish later tonight into Friday
morning. Sub-advisory conditons are expected Friday into this


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
         for LOZ042-043.



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