Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 210937
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
537 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will control the weather throughout
the weekend and into the beginning of next week. A gradual
warming trend will ensue and allow temperatures to approach
normal.

A slow moving storm system will begin to affect the region by
Tuesday. The good news is, no snow is expected this time around!

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
To start the day we have a freeze warning over the SERN 1/3 of
the forecast area where the the growing season is officially
underway. Now if only the weather will cooperate, it might start
to feel like we are entering the last part of April.

It will be a bright day through a few thin high clouds as the
ridge builds over head. With a light breeze temperatures will
rise up into the 50s in most locations. This will still be a few
degrees below normal, but will feel nice compared to what we
have seen so far this month.

Fair and chilly weather will continue overnight, but in the
growing season counties I plan to hold off on any further
headlines as lows are expected to be just mild enough to
preclude widespread frost/freeze issues. The day shift can fine
tune the temperatures if it looks colder than what is in the
forecast at this hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Another nice day is on tap for Sunday with highs expected to be
a few degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will control the pattern through Monday before we
start to see the weather head downhill once again. Mornings
will remain chilly, but afternoon temperatures will moderate
close to seasonal normals with readings reaching the 60s in most
places by Monday.

The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the
region on Tuesday and continue for much of the new work week.

An upper low is just beginning to emerge out of the southern
Rockies, and it will track east under the upper ridge that
extends from the Midwest into Canada. As the low emerges onto
the plains it takes on a sort of rex- blocky appearance as it
crawls eastward, and latest model runs slow this system down
from previous timing so grids adjusted accordingly.

Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low
as it moves into toward the east coast, reforming the long wave
trough over the eastern US by the end of the week. The slow
moving nature of the system suggests once the rain moves in, it
will remain in the forecast for several days.

The first of the rain looks to arrive during the day Tuesday
with periods of rain continuing into Thursday. By later
Thursday into Friday the GFS/GEFS start to disagree with the
ECMWF/ECENS on the strength and timing of the lead shortwave.
The GFS/GEFS suggest showery weather continuing for much of
Friday while the ECMWF/ECENS suggest Friday will be dry and
rather mild.

Bigger disagreements arise for the weekend with the GFS showing
a potent upper low and cold front that would be accompanied by
an unseasonably cold airmass, and reintroduce the chance of snow
showers in the cold blustery post cold frontal flow. That`s too
far out to inspire real confidence and is just beyond the end of
the untended forecast, so no mention of the S word is in the
forecast as yet.

High temperatures are expected to remain slightly colder than
normal throughout the forecast period. But being only a few
degrees below normal will feel relatively nice given the almost
constant much below normal temperatures we have endured so far
this month.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some fog now at BFD. Not seeing any low clds yet. Minor
adjustments made to 09Z TAFS.

Other than some patchy fog the next few hours, looking at
dry and mild conditions into Monday, as high pressure builds
into the area.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible PM.

Wed...Rain/low cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035-
036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin


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