Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 171756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

An area of low pressure will push east across Kentucky and
Tennessee today. High pressure will move back into the area on
Sunday and Monday, before another area of low pressure brings
precipitation to the region on Monday night and Tuesday.


Went ahead and cancelled the rest of the Winter Weather
Advisory as the significant winter pcpn has lifted north of the
region. Followed it with an SPS, for lingering isolated slick
spots. Ground and roads temperatures seemed to limit the
coverage of the icing.

Additional light rain showers will still be possible today as
the H5 s/w and sfc low slip se from Illinois into Kentucky.

East to northeast winds, combining with abundant cloud cover,
will keep temperatures well below normal. Temperatures will
only make it to the upper 30s in the north and the lower 40s for
the southern counties.


Tonight, much drier air will begin to work into the area with PWATs
forecast to fall to around a tenth of an inch (or below the tenth
percentile for this time of year). During the day Sunday beautiful
weather is in the forecast with clear skies and near calm winds as
surface high pressure settles overhead. 850 MB temperatures are
forecast to be around or slightly above zero degrees C. This will
equate to high temperatures in the mid 50s, on average, across
the forecast area.


A weakening mid level short wave will move out of the Plains Sunday
night and across the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys Monday into Tuesday.
This will allow for an associated surface low to push east across
the Tennessee Valley and gradually weaken through Tuesday. Initially
the models are in decent agreement with the evolution of this system
although the 00Z ECMWF remains somewhat farther south with the track
of the low and thus the northern extent of the pcpn shield Monday
into Tuesday compared to the GFS/NAM/CMC. This is the second run in
a row that the ECMWF has been farther south so have allowed for a
slight southward adjustment in the pops. Thermal fields suggest
mainly rain with this initial wave. However, it does look like we
will cool off enough across about the northern third of our area to
allow for a transition to a wintery mix later Monday night into
Tuesday morning, depending on how far north the precipitation makes
it. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 40s north to the mid
50s across the south. Some cooler air will begin to be pulled in on
the backside of the low later Monday night and Tuesday, leading to
highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The surface low will will eventually evolve into more of an inverted
trough nosing up into our area through Wednesday as the mid and
upper level energy shifts off to the East Coast. However, there
remains quite a bit of difference between the 00Z ECMWF with this
and the remaining suite of models. The ECMWF remains much weaker and
farther southeast although it appears the CMC and to a lesser
extent, the GFS have also trended somewhat weaker and more
southeast. As a result, will trim back pops a bit for Tuesday night
into Wednesday night and allow for more of a southeast shift. Ptype
will remain an issue depending on how much cooler air gets pulled
down into the area. For now, will allow for a rain/snow mix in the
south to mainly snow in the north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
mid 30s to lower 40s.

High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the area for
Thursday with highs mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range. As the high
moves east, high temperatures by Friday will moderate into the mid
to upper 40s. A warm front lifting up from the southwest could lead
to a chance of rain late in the day on Friday.


Sfc low in wrn Kentucky will continue to drop se this afternoon.
It will be followed quickly by a H5 s/w. An area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms developed around CVG and has already
moved e, but expect additional showers to develop this
afternoon as the lift associated with the s/w moves across the
region. As this time, don`t expect anymore thunder. Will carry a
VCSH at all tafs to cover the chance of showers.

IFR ceilings at CVG will begin to rise, as the afternoon
progresses. Expect them to reach MVFR around 22Z.
MVFR cigs at LUK and ILN will linger through the afternoon,
while the northern tafs should experience VFR cigs.

After the s/w passes by, clearing will begin to work north to
south through the tafs. CMH/LCK will be the first to clear,
around 04Z. For the srn tafs, it won`t be until 08-09Z before
the clearing lines reaches them. Ceilings could jump to VFR an
hour or so before the clouds scatter.

High pressure will provide VFR conditions for Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Monday night through Wednesday.




NEAR TERM...Novak/Sites
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