Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 192008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
308 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018


Today and Tonight...

A warm day is unfolding across the region as we continue to monitor
radar and satellite for storm initiation as a dryline progresses
across our region. Latest HRRR guidance is bullish with storms in
north MS but even it agrees on storms having a hard time breaking
the cap in our region. However, we will maintain the threat of
isolated severe storms for the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening in the eastern portions of our region as the atmosphere
still remains prime to support storms in that area if the cap is
ever broken.

Drier, cooler air will filter into the region overnight behind the
surface front. Cloud cover will begin to increase again tomorrow
morning as wrap around moisture, associated with the deep low
that will continue to progress eastward, moves into the region
from the north. A secondary shortwave, ejecting into the region
from the NW, may provide enough lift to kick off some light shower
activity through the day on tomorrow, with the best chances
occurring in the northern portions of the ArkLaMiss. Highs
tomorrow will be about 10 degrees below normal areawide.

Tuesday night through Sunday: The light rain Tuesday should end by
Tuesday evening and a period of dry weather is expected Tuesday
night through Friday. Rain chances still look to return to the
northern zones Friday night and continue over at least the northern
half of the area through the weekend. Tuesday evening the nearly
stacked low is expected to be centered over the Ohio valley with
northwest flow aloft remaining across our region. This will help a
>1020mb high build over our CWA from the northwest. With the high
still to our northwest early Wednesday morning the wind may not
decouple but, CAA and clear skies will allow temperatures to bottom
out well below normal. Mid 30s will be possible across our northeast
and there is some concern that patchy light frost may develop. The
surface high will become centered over our CWA Wednesday and still
be over eastern Mississippi early Thursday morning. Under clear
skies and a near calm wind all night patchy frost development is
more likely over our northeast zones as temperatures there bottom
our in the mid 30s again. The surface high will shift east of our
CWA Thursday and light return flow is expected during the afternoon.
Normal highs run from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s
southeast. Temperatures will top out close to normal in the
southwest but slightly cooler than normal elsewhere. Temperatures
and moisture will continue Friday into the weekend. A large closed
low moving over the northwest CONUS will induce mid level ridging
over the central CONUS Friday. This ridging aloft will shift east
over our region as a shortwave moving out of the southwest CONUS
deepens a Lee side low. Models differ on when rain chances will
return to our CWA but Friday still looks warm and dry. The surface
low will track east and weaken. It now appears more likely that its
cold front will stall north of our CWA Saturday though daytime
heating should be able to set off a few storms across our northern
zones. The stalled front is expected to remain north of our CWA
through Sunday. Rain chances look to remain more confined to the
northern half of our CWA with warmer than normal temperatures and
dry weather across our south. /22/


18Z TAF discussion:

Flight conditions will continue to improve areawide as a front
sweeps across the region, ushering in dry air and an end to low
CIGs. Cloud cover has already began to clear along and west of the
MS River and will continue to clear as the dryline pushes
eastward. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in east MS
this afternoon and could impact sites in that area. Winds will
remain gusty through the period.


Jackson       47  60  40  63 /  13  23   2   0
Meridian      51  61  39  63 /  35  25   4   0
Vicksburg     49  62  41  65 /   7  14   0   0
Hattiesburg   54  63  42  66 /  19  16   0   1
Natchez       50  63  42  65 /   5   7   0   0
Greenville    47  59  40  61 /  13  27   3   0
Greenwood     46  56  38  60 /  11  36   5   0





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