Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
348 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

At 08z...Scattered to broken mid clouds remained across much of
western Nebraska. Winds were light and variable. Temperatures ranged
mostly from the mid 330s to low 40s. Strong onshore flow onto the
West Coast, was bringing fairly widespread rain and snow to central
and Northern California. On the East Coast, A closed low off the
coast of New England was bringing another round of snow from New
Jersey to Massachusetts.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

An upper ridge axis will reach the High Plains today. This will
bring a continued warmup to the region. High pressure from the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes will bring easterly winds and cooler
temperatures. Some of these cooler temperatures will reside across
north central Nebraska, while the mid airmass will extend across the
southwestern half of the forecast area. Kept highs across northern
Nebraska near previous forecast in the mid to upper 50s, while
warming up southwestern areas a few degrees to near 70. Far
southwest areas into the lower 70s. Morning cloudiness across the
east will thin out, with the west mostly sunny. Broken coverage of
high clouds cresting the upper ridge will move into the western
Sandhills mid afternoon and across most of western Nebraska by early

For tonight, southwest flow aloft will increase and skies will
become mostly cloudy to cloudy overnight. There will remain a chance
for light rain across portions of north central Nebraska, with up to
a 30 percent chance near and north of highway 20. Low temperatures
will remain fairly mild overnight from around 40 to the lower 40s.
East to southeast winds will increase overnight, at up to 10 to 20
mph in north central Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A lead shortwave will eject eastward across the area Friday ahead
of a long wave trough positioned across the western states. This
lead wave will help induce a surface cyclone across eastern
Colorado Friday afternoon. The surface low will then progress
eastward across Kansas Friday night. At least some gulf moisture
will get pulled northward into the region ahead of the low.
Surface dew points around 50F are expected late Friday afternoon
across central and southwest Nebraska, leading to some limited
instability. Have maintained the chance for thunder late Friday
afternoon and Friday evening as a cold front advances east through
the area. Any precipitation should remain scattered and have limited
pops to 50 percent or less.

The next chance of precipitation comes Sunday into Monday. Broad
southwest flow aloft will be in place during this time as the long
wave trough advances slowly east into the Rockies. Surface low
pressure once again develops across the high plains and pulls
decent low level moisture westward. It appears that an area showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop across the panhandle later
Sunday afternoon and then advance eastward across the Sandhills
and northern Nebraska Sunday night. Have increased pops to likely
for this event as a moist southerly low level jet should help
maintain the precipitation as it advances eastward. Eventually
the long trough digs toward the desert southwest and becomes
closed by midweek. The system then progresses slowly east across
the southern plains late in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR is generally expected across western and north central
Nebraska tonight and Thursday. There is a chance IFR/MVFR cigs will
develop Thursday along and north of highway 20.

A warm front develops overnight with east winds developing near
Valentine and southeast winds to the south at North Platte. SCT-
BKN120 cigs are expected overnight through Thursday evening.

There is a chance IFR/MVFR cigs will develop Thursday evening in
the easterlies across nrn Nebraska including Valentine. The
forecast follows the model consensus which is for VFR in this area
and elsewhere through 06z Thursday evening.




LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.