Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261752
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAF CYCLE

Low pres system, centered ovr NE MS, wl cont to provide cyclonic
flow/clouds acrs much of AR this aftn. Look for a combo of
MVFR/VFR Cigs thru the early evening hrs. VFR conds expected thru
the rest of the PD with just some mid and high lvl clouds at
times. Breezy N/NW winds this aftn arnd 10 kts, subsiding to arnd
5 kts tngt and early Fri. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018)

Short Term...Today through Friday night

Models this morning are showing only minimal differences with the
upper level system that continues to produce some occasional showers
over central and eastern sections of the state. Given these overall
small differences between the models, a blend of forecast solutions
is preferred.

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows the placement of the upper
low quite clearly at this time. Feature is located over southeast
Arkansas and matches up very well where the high res models say it
should be. Mainly light showers continue to rotate around the upper
level low with most models indicating the majority of the precip
getting out of the CWA by early this morning. With that in mind,
will include a pre first period in the forecast to take into account
lingering showers early this morning.

Even with the upper low moving away, there will still be plenty of
mid to low level moisture to deal with. As such, clouds will be
hanging around this morning but some clearing is expected to occur
during the day as drier air finally wraps in.

Progressive pattern will continue with another weak front moving
through the broad cyclonic flow over the eastern half of the
nation tonight through early Friday. Models have been steadfast of
late in weakening this system as it moves through and this has not
changed this morning. Front may squeeze out a sprinkle or two but
that should be about it. Another, even weaker boundary will move
into northern Arkansas by the end of the period. Another day with
below normal temperatures is expected today with highs close to
normal for Friday.

Long Term...Saturday through Wednesday

An upper ridge of high pressure over the Rockies Saturday will
provide northwest flow over Arkansas. Areas of low pressure aloft
will be over the Great Lakes and west coast. The upper ridge will
slowly move east through the weekend and by Monday will be over the
Mississippi River. On Tuesday, the western low starts to dig south
and turns to the northeast Wednesday.

Surface high pressure with dry air will be over Arkansas Saturday. A
dry cold front moves into north Arkansas early Sunday but washes
out. Dry weather continues on Monday with high pressure moving
through the Appalachians. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Temperatures will generally be slowly warming through
the period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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