419
FXUS64 KLZK 060551
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1251 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Showers and storms will linger across the area through the evening
hours before activity starts to exit in the wake of the H500 wave
lifting to the northeast. Some FG development is possible around
daybreak.

Warmer temperatures are expected across the state on Monday with
highs climbing above 80 F in many locations. Little to no precip
is expected earlier in the day and if the sun makes an appearance,
it will feel quite uncomfortable outside given recent rain and Td
values around 70 F. A weak disturbance in the SW flow aloft will
help provide increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon/evening hours.

More widespread severe activity is expected to be focused across
portions of OK/KS from Monday afternoon through the evening hours.
This activity will likely persist in intensity eastward through
the overnight hours and could provide some severe potential early
Tuesday morning across W/NW parts of the state. Behind the storms,
the front will sink south toward Arkansas. Additional
thunderstorms could develop throughout the day Tuesday ahead of
the front as well as along any lingering boundaries in place over
the area. POPs on Tuesday are highest during the morning hours
with lower POPs in place later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to move out
of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. This storm system
will drag a cold front across the state bringing the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night will be somewhat of a two prong
event. Tuesday night into early Wednesday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Damaging winds
and hail would be the primary threat with these storms. The main
event will come Wednesday evening and night as the front moves into
the state. Instability and wind shear will be much higher on
Wednesday. This will bring a better chance of heavy rainfall, large
hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes.

QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern
Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one
to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with
the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas.

Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will
be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures
will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

SHRA/TSRA activity was departing the state to the E with skies
beginning to clear in its wake from the S and SW. Expecting a
low-level stratus deck to develop in addition to FG where
clearing takes place. Widespread IFR/LIFR conds are expected
overnight with conds improving between 14z/16z on Mon. Winds will
be Srly at around 10-15 knts on Mon with conds improving to
MVFR/VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  69  86  68 /  30  60  30  20
Camden AR         83  68  87  69 /  40  20  10  10
Harrison AR       80  64  83  62 /  20  70  10  10
Hot Springs AR    82  67  85  67 /  40  50  10  20
Little Rock   AR  84  70  87  71 /  40  50  20  20
Monticello AR     84  71  88  72 /  30  20  20  10
Mount Ida AR      81  67  85  67 /  50  50  20  20
Mountain Home AR  81  65  84  63 /  30  60  20  10
Newport AR        82  69  84  68 /  30  50  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     84  70  87  70 /  30  30  20  20
Russellville AR   83  67  86  66 /  30  60  10  20
Searcy AR         83  68  85  67 /  30  50  20  20
Stuttgart AR      83  70  85  71 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70