Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 041804
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MAY 4, 2018

The 2018 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is not high at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado Mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores, and
San Juan basins.

Currently, no sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows at or
above the flood flow, even at the 10% exceedance level.

Below average peaks are expected across western Colorado. Highest flows,
with respect to average, are forecast in the Upper Colorado Mainstem and
Yampa/White river basins. Keep in mind instantaneous peaks can be higher
than mean daily peaks, especially in headwater basins. Specific forecast
procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

April precipitation was above normal in the Yampa/White (110%) and Upper Colorado
Mainstem (115%) river basins. Gunnison basin April precipitation was 85% of average.
April precipitation was much below average in the Dolores (40%) and San Juan (35%)
river basins. Water year precipitation to date (October through April) is below to
much below average:

Yampa/White                85%
Upper CO Mainstem          85%
Gunnison                   65%
Dolores/San Miguel         50%
San Juan                   45%

May 1st snow water equivalent values remain below to much below median
across western Colorado:

Yampa/White                70%
Upper CO Mainstem          70%
Gunnison                   40%
Dolores/San Miguel          5%
San Juan                   15%

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
below to much below average across western Colorado river basins. Highest
forecasts, as a percent of average, are in the Upper Colorado Mainstem basins
which generally range between 60 and 90 percent of average. The Yampa/White
forecasts range from 50 to 80 percent of average. Gunnison basin forecasts
range between 30 and 70 percent of average. Dolores and San Juan basin
forecasts generally range from 20 to 40 percent of average.

It is important to keep in mind that an extended period of much above normal
temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt period can cause or exacerbate
flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2018-05-01   2000   2300   2500   2700   3000
ELK - MILNER, NR            6220 2018-05-01   2200   2500   2700   3000   3500
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2018-05-01   5500   6500   7000   8000   9000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR    14700 2018-05-01          1600   2000   2500   3500
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20600 2018-05-01   7000   8000   9000   9500  11500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8570 2018-05-01   1200   1400   1600   1700   2000
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2250 2018-05-01    250    280    300    350    410
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1650 2018-05-01    440    480    530    620    680
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    340 2018-05-01     50     60     65     75     90
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2018-05-01   1400   1550   1900   2300   2800
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2018-05-01   3400   3700   4600   6200   8000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2018-05-01    800    900   1100   1200   1500
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2018-05-01   2200   2400   2900   3700   4500
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2018-05-01   6500   7000   9000  12000  15000
EAST - ALMONT               3160 2018-05-01    800    950   1100   1400   1600
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14460 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1500 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  20550 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1790 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
DOLORES - DOLORES           7170 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   -999 2018-05-01    350    400    500    600    700
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2018-05-01   5000   6500   8000  13000  17000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5800 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10500 2018-05-01   1000   1200   1400   1700   2200
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2018-05-01   1000   1200   1500   1900   2400
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         1100 2018-05-01   see current forecast hydrograph



CBRFC/Moser



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