Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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851
FNUS72 KMLB 220611
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Pineda Brush Fire...Brevard County Rescue
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
211 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 0300 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Early morning (pre-dawn) conditions at the burn site are cloudy
with passing showers in the vicinity moving onshore from the coast.
Winds are out of the east at 18 mph gusting to 25 mph. The temperature
is in the middle 70s with the relative humidity above 80 percent.
Occasional brief showers with moderate rain are possible. The rain
chance is 50 percent. Transport winds are out of the east at 22 mph.

General Outlook: Increasing moisture coupled with onshore winds will
keep humidity values elevated with well above normal rain chances
with a few lightning storms possible. Breezy conditions will continue
with occasional gusts of 25 mph, especially near the coast. A developing,
slow-moving storm system over the southeast U.S. will keep rain
chances high early next week. No RH concerns are anticipated.

Fog potential and other remarks...Fog is not expected.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning, then showers likely early
                    in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0800, then No Tstms until
                    1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100-3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 24 mph.
Dispersion index....32 increasing to 54.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 1 early in the afternoon, then
                    increasing to 3 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  89  88  88  88  88  88  88  83  83  83  83
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH                         SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............73  73  73  75  76  77  78  78  79  78  78  77
RH..............82  81  80  76  75  73  71  71  69  70  70  71
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..13  13  14  15  15  16  16  16  16  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.24  23  23  22  22  22  22  22  23  23  23  23
Dispersion idx..32  31  46  46  49  51  52  53  57  55  53  51
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   1   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 16 mph decreasing to
                    around 6 mph early in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 22 mph decreasing to 5 to 10
                    mph after midnight.
Dispersion index....41 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 after midnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........83     82     82     82     73     73
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     60     60     60     60     60
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............76     73     73     73     72     72
RH..............73     81     83     84     87     89
20 ft wind......E 16   E 13   SE 12  SE 10  SE 7   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   1200   1300   1000   300    300
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 21  SE 22  SE 16  SE 7   SE 6
Dispersion idx..44     19     24     14     5      4
LVORI...........3      3      4      4      5      6

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2100-3100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 14 mph shifting to the south 17
                    to 22 mph late in the morning.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 14 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 34 late in the morning increasing
                    to 54 late in the morning decreasing to 42
                    increasing to 57 early in the afternoon.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 4 in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then decreasing to 1 early in the
                    afternoon increasing to 3 late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........73     80     80     80     86     86
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     70     70     70     70     70
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............72     71     76     80     81     80
RH..............90     89     78     72     70     73
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 8   S 10   S 12   S 13   S 13
20 ft wind gust.       10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    2000   2900   3100   2400
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 8   S 14   S 18   S 17   S 21
Dispersion idx..5      0      34     42     56     58
LVORI...........6      7      3      3      1      3

$$
Forecaster...Sharp
Requested by...Bill
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807315.0/MLB



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