Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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143
FNUS73 KMPX 231316
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Roscoe Prairie Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
816 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Rain to the west and south is now splitting, with the
thunderstorms to the south expected to turn easterly and remain south
of your location.  The showers due west of you are also dissipating and
confidence is high that they won`t reach your site.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning. Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    precipitation 20 percent.
Temperature.........76 at ignition...Max 84.
RH..................66 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southeast 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-2200 ft AGL increasing to 4800-5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing winds........South 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (9600-54900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent /65800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /82400 knot-ft/ late in the
                    morning.
Haines Index........4 or low at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............76  79  81  83  84  84  83
RH..............66  60  56  53  49  49  51
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  10  9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  17  18  18  18  20  20
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.17  17  18  18  18  20  20
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100066  77  81  80  79  82  81

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 20
                    percent.
Temperature.........Min 66.
RH..................Max 87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3400-4700 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 23 mph.
Mixing winds........South 20 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (37000-80100 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to fair (13500 knot-ft) late in the
                    evening.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............81     76     73     71     68     66
RH..............54     69     73     79     84     87
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 5   SE 6   SE 6   S 7    S 6
20 ft wind gust.15     10     15     10     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4700   3400   2100   700    700    700
Transport wind..S 20   S 21   S 21   S 22   S 22   S 23
Mixing wind.....S 20   S 21   S 21   S 22   S 22   S 23
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4
SDspl kt-ft/100080     61     37     14     14     14

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of
                    precipitation 30 percent.
Temperature.........Max 89.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-2300 ft AGL increasing to 3600-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 31 mph.
Mixing winds........South 24 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (14500-52700 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (74200 knot-ft) late in the
                    morning, then increasing to excellent (99400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon decreasing to
                    excellent (89900 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to or low.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............67     74     83     87     87     85
RH..............81     69     55     50     50     51
20 ft wind......S 8    S 9    S 11   S 12   S 12   S 11
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....700    2300   3900   5500   4700   4000
Transport wind..S 24   S 26   S 29   S 31   S 30   S 29
Mixing wind.....S 24   S 26   S 29   S 31   S 30   S 29
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3
SDspl kt-ft/100015     53     97     148    123    99

$$
Forecaster...DEVINNY
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810542.0/MPX
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org



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