Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 230528

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 18N87W. A surface trough
extends from the NE Yucatan Peninsula near 22N87W to the low
center to the N coast of Honduras near 16N86W. This system just
east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and
into the Florida peninsula. Little development is expected during
the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and
proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. However, gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week
while the system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of
Florida during the next several days. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. There is a very low possibility of tropical storm
formation over the next 24 hours. There is a medium chance for
tropical formation within 5 days.


A tropical wave is along 41W, S of 10N, moving W at 10 to 15
knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 01N30W to
02N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 02N43W and
reaches the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 00N-04N between 02W-22W. Similar convection is
from 05S-03N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 02S-01N
between 46W-51W.



10-15 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Presently scattered showers are over portions of the Florida
Peninsula, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba.

An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico
and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over
the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW
Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the
two troughs.

An Atlantic surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf of
Mexico will shift eastward through Fri. An area of low pressure
is expected to develop off the northern coast of Yucatan on Fri.
The tropical low will move slowly northward in the eastern Gulf
this weekend, with highest winds and seas east of the low.


Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from
the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate
convection is S of Cuba from 16N-22N between 77W-83W.

An upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W with
considerable upper level moisture. An upper level trough is over
the E Caribbean with strong subsidence E of 70W and N of 12N.

A surface ridge north of the area will maintain fresh trade
winds in the central Caribbean through Thu, with strong winds
expected along the northern coast of Colombia. A broad low near
Belize will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through Fri.
Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are possible in the NW
Caribbean Thu night and Fri as the low develops.


Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 31N50W producing fair weather.

An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support moderate to fresh
trade winds south of 22N this week, with winds pulsing to strong
N of Hispaniola at night. Winds and seas will diminish slightly
Fri as the ridge shifts east. An area of low pressure in the
Gulf of Mexico will increase SE winds west of 77W this weekend.

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