794
FXUS65 KABQ 030602 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1202 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Today will be mostly dry with the exception of an isolated shower or
two across the northeast. Some drizzle and patchy fog is possible
across the same area early tomorrow morning. A few strong to severe
storms may develop Friday afternoon along the Texas border then
again Saturday afternoon across the southeast plains. Southwest to
west winds increase Sunday afternoon, marking the first of several
days with widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

A very dry airmass has settled into northern and western NM behind a
weak Pacific cold front this morning. Meanwhile, shallow low level
moisture is still in place over eastern NM this afternoon. A cumulus
field has developed along the boundary between these two airmasses
near the central mt chain. The latest HREF, RRFS, and NBM guidance
is still showing a couple showers developing over far northeast NM
as the boundary sharpens thru sunset. Instability and moisture are
limited so this activity is likely to produce only light rain with
gusty winds. A 1016mb surface high building south down the Great
Plains this evening will help low level flow to become more easterly
tonight with deepening moisture westward to the central mt chain
around sunrise. Hi-res models have the low level moisture much
farther west than global models late tonight thru Friday afternoon
over eastern NM. This leads to large differences in the extent of
low stratus over the plains tonight and the eventual initiation
point for storms Friday afternoon. The latest SPC convective outlook
trended farther west with the general storm outlook Friday and now
includes a Marginal Risk area just west of the TX/NM border. The 18Z
NAM lift and instability is plenty sufficient for strong to severe
storms but bulk shear values are marginal near 30kt. Convective
initiation may occur as far west as the I-25 corridor of northeast
NM before storms strengthen upstream toward the TX border. The next
backdoor cold front moving south down the Colorado Front Range
Friday afternoon is expected to force a large cluster of storms to
develop over southeast CO thru Friday evening. These storms will
reinforce the momentum of the backdoor front and shoot the boundary
rapidly southward across eastern NM thru sunrise Saturday. The bulk
of the deeper moisture appears to be along and immediately behind
the frontal passage followed dry air advection into northeast NM.
Widespread low stratus is likely over eastern NM along with a few
additional showers Friday night. The front may squeeze thru gaps in
the central mt chain before sunrise Saturday with a brief period of
gusty canyon winds possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Any east canyon winds in Albuquerque will be short-lived Saturday
morning given that southwest flow will push this boundary back to
the east with daytime mixing. The NAM suggests that there may be
some light precipitation across the eastern plains during the
morning hours along the leading edge of the front, but this
appears unlikely given how shallow the moisture layer will be.
Precipitation chances increase during the afternoon hours across
the southeast plains where a more moist Gulf airmass meets the
cooler/drier airmass associated with the backdoor front. The exact
area of convective development remains relatively uncertain given
that it will be highly dependent on where this convergence zone
sets up. Shear sufficient for the development of supercells
straddles the southeast border of the CWA, but this may expand
further northwest (southeast) if the front moves slower (faster)
than currently modeled. Slow storm motion will keep any storms
that develop around through the overnight hours and increase the
risk of flash flooding. Very dry soils across the southeast plains
(<15% per NASA LIS) will struggle to absorb moisture under
intense rainfall rates so there is low potential for flash
flooding as well. Non-severe convection is also likely over the
northern mountains Saturday afternoon, with locally gusty outflow
winds the main threat given large sfc dewpoint depressions.
Furthermore, if vigorous convection does manifest across the
eastern plains Saturday afternoon, the outflow boundaries could
trigger additional convection in the highlands overnight and gusty
east canyon winds in east Albuquerque.

Increasing southerly flow out ahead of a large trough over The Great
Basin will eventually kick this more moist airmass to the east,
allowing fire weather concerns to take center stage for the rest of
the week. Confidence is moderate to high that windy conditions will
prevail across the region each afternoon Sunday through Thursday as
the trough traverses the Intermountain West then hangs out over the
High Plains. Currently, Sunday and Monday are looking like the
windiest days of the week given the stronger 700mb winds, but dry
unidirectional flow through the end of the week will support
efficient mixing down to the surface, even if 700mb winds are less
than 2 standard deviations above climatological normals. After a
slight cooldown Monday behind a dry Pacific front, temperatures rise
and remain a few degrees above seasonal normals mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Low level moisture will surge westward to the east slopes of the
central mountain chain for the remainder of tonight resulting in
areas of low clouds with MVFR and localized IFR conditions across
northeast and east central areas. The low clouds will dissipate
from the west on Friday morning clearing most places by mid day,
but likely lingering near the NM border with TX and OK into the
late morning. Friday afternoon, scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to spread across the eastern plains and
as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Cells will move
toward the east and northeast at speeds around 20-25 kt. A moist
backdoor front is then forecast to dive south and southwestward
through the eastern plains Friday night causing the chance for
showers and thunderstorms to linger, especially along NM`s eastern
border. Areas of low clouds will probably also return to the
eastern plains late Friday night. The front is forecast to push
through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind
in the KSAF and KABQ areas perhaps as early as the predawn hours
Saturday morning, but more likely just after sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...

Marginally critical fire weather will continue over parts of western
NM thru Saturday with warm, dry, breezy, and unstable conditions.
Eastern NM will finally get a break from fire weather as low level
moisture increases behind a couple backdoor cold fronts. Localized
wetting rainfall is possible from storms closer to the TX border on
Friday and Saturday. Just enough moisture may seep into the northern
mts on Saturday to spawn a few high-based showers and storms with
dry lightning possible. The focus shifts to widespread critical and
perhaps extreme fire weather Sunday thru Wednesday with an extended
period of strong winds and very low humidity. Strong southwest winds
Sunday will shift out of the west Monday and Tuesday with an upper
level trough passage followed by northwest winds Wednesday.
Overnight recoveries will be poor in many areas Monday night and
Tuesday night followed up to 10 hours of single digit RH in some
areas. The latest SPC fire weather outlook already highlights
critical fire weather concerns next week which is rare for this far
out in the forecast. The main exception will be parts of northwest
NM Monday where cooler temps and perhaps even some spotty showers
are possible with the trough passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  76  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  71  34  74 /   0   0   0  20
Cuba............................  36  71  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  32  73  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  35  74  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  72  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  76  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  41  72  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  77  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  80  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  66  35  68 /   0   5   0  30
Los Alamos......................  46  70  49  69 /   0   5   0  20
Pecos...........................  39  71  40  68 /   0  10   0  30
Cerro/Questa....................  36  66  40  66 /   0  10   0  40
Red River.......................  29  62  31  62 /   0  10   5  50
Angel Fire......................  27  64  27  61 /   0  20   5  40
Taos............................  32  71  34  71 /   0   5   0  30
Mora............................  36  69  35  64 /   0  20   5  30
Espanola........................  43  78  45  77 /   0   5   0  20
Santa Fe........................  45  72  46  71 /   0  10   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  42  76  43  74 /   0   5   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  78  52  77 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  80  50  80 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  45  83  47  83 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  47  81  50  80 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  45  82  46  82 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  46  81  49  80 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  45  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  49  77  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  47  80  50  79 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  51  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  71  45  69 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  43  75  47  73 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  42  75  43  71 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  77  38  73 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  39  72  38  66 /   0   5   0  10
Mountainair.....................  42  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  41  75  43  74 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  51  79  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  46  73  46  74 /   0   0   0  20
Capulin.........................  37  68  35  62 /  10  30  10  20
Raton...........................  38  72  35  67 /   5  20  10  30
Springer........................  38  73  38  67 /   5  20  10  30
Las Vegas.......................  39  71  38  66 /   5  20   5  30
Clayton.........................  43  72  43  65 /  20  30  30  10
Roy.............................  43  72  42  66 /  10  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  48  79  48  72 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  46  77  45  70 /  10  10   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  47  78  47  71 /  10  20  20  30
Clovis..........................  50  80  50  73 /   5  20  20  50
Portales........................  51  82  52  75 /   5  20  20  50
Fort Sumner.....................  51  82  49  75 /  10  10   5  30
Roswell.........................  54  90  55  83 /   5   5   5  30
Picacho.........................  48  83  49  78 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  46  81  47  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44