Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
429 FXAK68 PAFC 291225 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 425 AM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)... The upper level ridge remains over Southcentral Alaska this morning although there is a shortwave tracking across the northern Copper River Basin which is enhancing clouds and bringing in a few showers. The ridge is slowly breaking down as the pattern shifts with the upper level flow becoming more south-to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday which will bring in more clouds and generally cooler temperatures to the region. The main chance for rain will be over Kodiak to the eastern Kenai Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday as a low tracks south of the Kodiak and the front associated with it crosses the Gulf. Most inland areas should remain dry as precipitation will downslope out over the lee side of the coastal mountain ranges. This pattern is also conducive for the south-to-southeast gap winds to develop in places such as Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and near the Copper River; especially from Tuesday evening through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)... The upper-level ridge centered over a good portion of the mainland this weekend will continue to move eastward over southcentral Alaska today. This will allow light southerly flow in the middle to upper levels to take over for the new work week. As such, low stratus, misty conditions, and potential fog will dominate coastal Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Low stratus and fog should burn off by late morning with day-time heating. However, cloudcover will still exist in any regard. To the south, a weak low pressure continues moving eastward in the North Pacific with its front straddling the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN). Light rain showers are anticipated for most of the day with this system and eventually ending from west-to-east tonight as the system slides by to the south. For Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday, weak upper- level shortwaves will lift over mainland Southwest Alaska and will help to generate some diurnal showers along the foothills of the higher terrain where snowpack no longer exists. Otherwise, expect the majority of the area to remain on the dry side. Wednesday afternoon, a Bering front, in it weakened stage, looks to come ashore along the Bristol Bay coast and southern AKPEN delivering potentially more wide spread rain and/or showers to the region with scattered showers possible over the Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley. This front continues to weaken and push eastward into the Gulf by Thursday with more scattered showers possible for mostly Bristol Bay. Meanwhile, in the Bering, a North Pacific low is currently organizing and strengthening west the of the Aleutian Chain. Its gale-force front will enter the western Bering this morning and sweep eastward across the Bering and Aleutian Chain while weakening through Wednesday. Gusty southerly to southeast winds ahead of the front along with rain are anticipated with cooler air wrapping in behind the front. Yet another gale-force front looks to enter the western Bering for Thursday with more gusty winds and rain for the Aleutian Chain. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... Low pressure moves into the western Bering Sea on Thursday, its front extends over the Aleutians by Wednesday. Multiple low centers track through the Gulf of Alaska through late week and the weekend. High pressure may linger across inland portions of Southcentral Alaska through the end of this week before the pattern shifts this weekend with a front moving onshore. Areas along the north Gulf coast, Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island will likely see periods of rain, however, there is still some uncertainty how far inland the precipitation will track. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. && $$